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• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) posted strong growth of ~52%
MoM in August 2014 to 1147 levels against 755 in July’14.
However, level of inventory of iron ore in China declined
sharply by 4.7% and steel output by 1.4% on MoM basis
indicating decline in consumption by Chinese steel mills.
Going ahead, rates are expected to taper down in near term
• Baltic Dirty Tanker index declined ~16% MoM post
strengthening ~11% in the month of July 2014. As refineries
in US and Europe approach maintenance, activity has slowed
down and freight rates eased. VLCC and Suezmax segments
rates declined nearly 12% and 40% MoM. The Baltic Clean
Tanker Index (BCTI) remained flattish on MoM basis with a 2%
decline to 545 levels
• Railway Passenger earnings for the month of August ’14
increased by~10% MoM whereas Goods earnings declined
by nearly 2.2%. On an YTD basis, passenger earnings
increased by 20% YoY to | 17745 crore, whereas goods
revenue rose by 10% YoY to | 41061 crore. Earnings from
fertilizer declined 14.5% whereas that from coal, iron-ore and
steel is up 26.4%, 23% and 25.6% respectively on YoY basis.
• Container volumes at major ports rose by ~5% YTD and 3.2%
YoY in August 2014 to 677000 TEUs. For Q1FY15 container
volumes have increased by 3.4% to 1934000 TEUs. JNPT
which is the largest container port of India saw container
volumes increasing by 7.3% YTD to 1861000 TEUs, while
Chennai port container volume grew 3.6% to at 371000 TEUs.
Outlook
Dry bulkers
With Chinese inventory remaining high, demand might suffer
consequently rates are expected to taper in the short term. Over the
longer term too we expect rates to remain frail as fleet addition already
done during 2013 (8% of current global fleet) and further 20% of current
capacity to be added by CY16 will weigh negatively on the freight rates as
well as the asset prices.
Tanker
Tanker segment charter rates continued their strong momentum in VLCC
and Suezmax segment till the first half of the month but post that it
declined as refineries in US and Europe approach maintenance. Suezmax
rates continue to decline throughout the month as VLCCs took up their
market. Aframax rates too declined but were marginally supported by
activity in North Sea and Mediterranean region as Libyan oil makes a
comeback. Going ahead, we expect tanker segment freight rates to firm
up particularly for the VLCC segment.
Offshore vessels
Offshore vessels utilisation is expected to remain healthy and flattish amid
average crude price for Aug 2014 remaining at $102/barrel. We expect
higher utilisation and firm charter rates in the near to medium term.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
��
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• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) posted strong growth of ~52%
MoM in August 2014 to 1147 levels against 755 in July’14.
However, level of inventory of iron ore in China declined
sharply by 4.7% and steel output by 1.4% on MoM basis
indicating decline in consumption by Chinese steel mills.
Going ahead, rates are expected to taper down in near term
• Baltic Dirty Tanker index declined ~16% MoM post
strengthening ~11% in the month of July 2014. As refineries
in US and Europe approach maintenance, activity has slowed
down and freight rates eased. VLCC and Suezmax segments
rates declined nearly 12% and 40% MoM. The Baltic Clean
Tanker Index (BCTI) remained flattish on MoM basis with a 2%
decline to 545 levels
• Railway Passenger earnings for the month of August ’14
increased by~10% MoM whereas Goods earnings declined
by nearly 2.2%. On an YTD basis, passenger earnings
increased by 20% YoY to | 17745 crore, whereas goods
revenue rose by 10% YoY to | 41061 crore. Earnings from
fertilizer declined 14.5% whereas that from coal, iron-ore and
steel is up 26.4%, 23% and 25.6% respectively on YoY basis.
• Container volumes at major ports rose by ~5% YTD and 3.2%
YoY in August 2014 to 677000 TEUs. For Q1FY15 container
volumes have increased by 3.4% to 1934000 TEUs. JNPT
which is the largest container port of India saw container
volumes increasing by 7.3% YTD to 1861000 TEUs, while
Chennai port container volume grew 3.6% to at 371000 TEUs.
Outlook
Dry bulkers
With Chinese inventory remaining high, demand might suffer
consequently rates are expected to taper in the short term. Over the
longer term too we expect rates to remain frail as fleet addition already
done during 2013 (8% of current global fleet) and further 20% of current
capacity to be added by CY16 will weigh negatively on the freight rates as
well as the asset prices.
Tanker
Tanker segment charter rates continued their strong momentum in VLCC
and Suezmax segment till the first half of the month but post that it
declined as refineries in US and Europe approach maintenance. Suezmax
rates continue to decline throughout the month as VLCCs took up their
market. Aframax rates too declined but were marginally supported by
activity in North Sea and Mediterranean region as Libyan oil makes a
comeback. Going ahead, we expect tanker segment freight rates to firm
up particularly for the VLCC segment.
Offshore vessels
Offshore vessels utilisation is expected to remain healthy and flattish amid
average crude price for Aug 2014 remaining at $102/barrel. We expect
higher utilisation and firm charter rates in the near to medium term.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
��
LINK
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_FreightForward_Sep%202014.pdf
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