The Indian markets have remained volatile so far in the year 2013 with benchmark indices outperforming the broader market with quite a margin.
The S&P BSE Sensex managed to rally over 1,700 points, or nearly 9 per cent, as compared to a little over 6 per cent fall in the BSE mid-cap index and 11 per cent decline seen in the BSE small cap index so far in the year 2013.
Equity markets recovered from historic lows and hit their respective record highs fairly in the month of November despite a sluggish economy and rising interest rates.
The much feared tapering from the US Federal Reserve has not had much impact on Indian markets, but the rise in the quantum of tapering in near future may come back to haunt markets in 2014.
FII flows, normally sluggish or moderate in December, have also surprised.
So far this month, offshore funds have invested Rs 14,807 crore, the second highest figure in the past 10 years, ET reported.
With two days remaining in the month, flows are likely to top Rs 15,000 crore though it is unlikely to reach anywhere close to last year's record of Rs 24,039 crore, said the report.
However, some market gurus warn investors that the markets have rallied ahead of their fundamentals and more on sentiments.
The market is likely to remain rangebound ahead of elections till more clarity emerges.
"Clearly, 2014 is going to be divided in two parts, pre-elections i.e. pre-June times and post-June times. A lot of optimism is getting built into the fact that there is going to be a change in the government and most of this change is going to go into the NDA coalition which is pro-business and pro-growth and pro-development," said Anish Damania, Head-Institutional Equities, IDFC Securities.
"Market is trying to discount something in terms of what could happen in future and today, most of the bets are therefore placed in that direction," he added.
These were two things that have really taken up the market to near record levels this month. One was the announcement of US tapering which actually reduced the much needed uncertainty around the whole event and the other is RBI, which kept a status quo on rates.
"So, therefore, the call has to be based only on liquidity and sentiment. The market has done its bit based on flows and based on sentiment but as far as fundamentals are concerned, it has gone as far as it can," said UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors, in an interview with ET Now.
"Corporate earnings are also not expected to be dramatically different than what it was at best single-digit earnings growth numbers; and on the macro side, we really do not have much of an improvement," he added.
Bhat is of the view that the whole market call is based on sentiment, based on politics and the second one is on capital flows from abroad. These are the only two things that can drive the market and the call has to be based on that.
��
The S&P BSE Sensex managed to rally over 1,700 points, or nearly 9 per cent, as compared to a little over 6 per cent fall in the BSE mid-cap index and 11 per cent decline seen in the BSE small cap index so far in the year 2013.
Equity markets recovered from historic lows and hit their respective record highs fairly in the month of November despite a sluggish economy and rising interest rates.
The much feared tapering from the US Federal Reserve has not had much impact on Indian markets, but the rise in the quantum of tapering in near future may come back to haunt markets in 2014.
FII flows, normally sluggish or moderate in December, have also surprised.
So far this month, offshore funds have invested Rs 14,807 crore, the second highest figure in the past 10 years, ET reported.
With two days remaining in the month, flows are likely to top Rs 15,000 crore though it is unlikely to reach anywhere close to last year's record of Rs 24,039 crore, said the report.
However, some market gurus warn investors that the markets have rallied ahead of their fundamentals and more on sentiments.
The market is likely to remain rangebound ahead of elections till more clarity emerges.
"Clearly, 2014 is going to be divided in two parts, pre-elections i.e. pre-June times and post-June times. A lot of optimism is getting built into the fact that there is going to be a change in the government and most of this change is going to go into the NDA coalition which is pro-business and pro-growth and pro-development," said Anish Damania, Head-Institutional Equities, IDFC Securities.
"Market is trying to discount something in terms of what could happen in future and today, most of the bets are therefore placed in that direction," he added.
These were two things that have really taken up the market to near record levels this month. One was the announcement of US tapering which actually reduced the much needed uncertainty around the whole event and the other is RBI, which kept a status quo on rates.
"So, therefore, the call has to be based only on liquidity and sentiment. The market has done its bit based on flows and based on sentiment but as far as fundamentals are concerned, it has gone as far as it can," said UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors, in an interview with ET Now.
"Corporate earnings are also not expected to be dramatically different than what it was at best single-digit earnings growth numbers; and on the macro side, we really do not have much of an improvement," he added.
Bhat is of the view that the whole market call is based on sentiment, based on politics and the second one is on capital flows from abroad. These are the only two things that can drive the market and the call has to be based on that.
-->
We have collated views and recommendations from various brokerage firms on their top stocks for the year 2014:
| SL No | Company Name | Target Price | Closing Price | % Return | Brokerage Firm |
| 1 | Cummins India | 540 | 469.15 | 15.10% | Motilal Oswal |
| 2 | M&M | 1040 | 964.55 | 7.82% | Karvy |
| 3 | Bata India | 1310 | 1053.85 | 24.31% | Nirmal Bang |
| 4 | Tata Communications | 340 | 298.55 | 13.88% | IIFL |
| 5 | Bajaj Electricals | 230 | 218.65 | 5.19% | ICICI Direct |
| 6 | Apollo Hospitals | 976 | 938.15 | 4.03% | Sushil Finance |
| 7 | TCS | 2700 | 2158.95 | 25.06% | Bonanza |
| 8 | Maruti Suzuki | 2250 | 1775.4 | 26.73% | Bonanza |
| 9 | Tata Motors | 450 | 371.15 | 21.24% | Bonanza |
| 10 | Axis Bank | 1800 | 1293.25 | 39.18% | Bonanza |
| 11 | HUL | 700 | 568.85 | 23.06% | Bonanza |
Note: Return calculated from Friday's (27 December) closing price
Motilal Oswal has a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock as the stringent CPCB-2 norms will lead to increased consolidation, improve business visibility and provide traction for new segments.
2) Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd: Target price set at Rs 1,040
Karvy maintains a 'BUY' rating on the stock as the good and favourable monsoon distribution will result in robust tractor sales, and better business performance of its key subsidiaries will support valuations.
3) Bata India Ltd: Target price set at Rs 1,310
Nirmal Bang maintains 'BUY' recommendation on the stock. With the focus on better product mix, the company is trying to increase the client conversion rate, along with better price points and productivity.
4) Tata Communications Ltd: Target price set at Rs 340
IIFL maintains a 'BUY' rating on the stock as the company's data business is set to drive the EBIDTA margin over the next few years, while the lower capex intensity will strengthen the cash flow.
5) Bajaj Electricals Ltd: Target price set at Rs 230
ICICIDirect maintains a 'BUY' rating on the stock as recent higher margin orders will help reduce the company's working capital requirement with an improvement in return ratios. Besides, the company is attractively valued.
6) Apollo Hospital Enterprises Ltd: Target price set at Rs 976
Sushil Finance Ltd maintains 'BUY' rating on the stock as the company is likely to enter a highgrowth phase, aided by major expansion projects, improvement in profitability and favourable industry dynamics.
Analyst: Puneet Kinra-AVP Research(Equity Technical), Bonanza Portfolio Ltd
7) Tata Consultancy Services: Target price set at Rs 2700
TCS is heavyweight of IT sector. The stock is consistently outperforming the market and is trading in long term uptrend. On Monthly charts, stock is consolidating in Rs 1900-2150 zone. On weekly charts, the price volume structure is positive and bullish.
The stock has shown good financial results and can be bought at current market price or it may be accumulated in (2100-2000) range. It is expected to breakout above Rs 2150 levels and it may reach Rs 2500 and then Rs 2700 in medium to long term.
8) Maruti Suzuki Ltd: Target price set at Rs 2250
Maruti Suzuki is heavyweight and outperformer of four-wheeler auto sector. The stock is trading in long term uptrend and has shown good financial results.
The stock recently breakout above its long term resistance at Rs 1670 levels and made all time high at Rs 1798. Price volume structure on Monthly charts and weekly charts is positive.
The chart pattern stock is forming may lead Maruti to Rs 2100 and then Rs 2250. The stock may be bought at current market price or it may be accumulated in Rs 1780-1700 zone for medium to long term target of Rs 2100 and Rs 2250.
9) Tata Motors Ltd: Target price set at Rs 450
Tata Motors is a large cap stock among other stocks in the auto space. It has outperformed market and some stocks of its sector in this year. The stock also made an all time high of Rs 405 (after split) this year.
The stock has shown good financial results. On Monthly charts, stock is trading in uptrend. Since 2 months, Tata Motors is trading in Rs 405-358 range. It is approaching towards lower end of range.
In the medium to long-term, stock is expected to breakout of Rs 405 levels and much higher prices may be seen. The stock may be bought at current market price or it may be accumulated in Rs 370-380 zone for medium to long term target of Rs 425/450.
10) Axis Bank Ltd: Target price set at Rs 1800
Axis Bank is a large cap high beta private bank stock. The stock has shown good financial results. Since last 4 years, stock is trading in Rs 800-1600 range on yearly charts.
Axis Bank is also in the process of returning its higher end of range. This time scenario is different. Despite higher inflation and higher interest rates, stock is managing to sustain at higher levels.
Next year, we are expecting decline in interest rates and inflation. And Axis bank not only can touch Rs 1600 levels but it may also surpass this Rs 1600 level and it may reach Rs 1800 and more.
Axis bank may be bought at current market price or it may be gradually accumulated in Rs 1250-1150 zone for medium term target of 1600 and then 1800+.
11) HUL: Target price set at Rs 700
HUL is a heavyweight of FMCG sector and after showing growth for some years on technical charts, it has shown lot of volatility in this year.
On Monthly charts, the stock is trading in uptrend and showing correction from 725 levels. Stock has monthly support at 540 levels also stock has Runaway major gap in 547-500 zone.
HUL is expected to complete its correction phase in this major gap and again the stock can rally. It may be bought at current market price or it may be gradually accumulated in Rs 550-510 zone for medium to long term target of Rs 640 and then Rs 700.
No comments:
Post a Comment