Technical Research - Global Technical Perspective (30-Sept-13-Edel)

• October seasonality – global volatility perks up; Nifty and Brent Crude grossly underperform

• Nifty (futs) – retracement move already underway; key levels are 5772 and 5646

• Bank Nifty (futs) – bears press hard; retreat to 9824 / 9490

• S&P 500 – near term is correcting lower into seasonally bearish October

• MSCI Asia ex-Japan – maintain bid to 560 despite a small pause

• DAX – narrow range warns of near term downside risk; below 8518 will aim deeper

• Nikkei 225 - breakout from 'pennant' targets May high of 15,942

• India 10-yr yield - contraction of range likely; look for test of 8.43%

• US 10-year yield – small top in place; expect a retreat into 2.52% / 2.41% range

• DXY – maintain bearish bias for 79.50

• USDINR – near term range of 63.05 - 61.20

• Brent Crude Oil – $107/106 to cushion any weakness

• Gold – near term directionless, but declines to $1277 to be bought

Regards,

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