! Q4FY13 Adjusted PAT down 40.3% YoY, FY13 PAT flat YoY: NHPC’s reported
revenue in Q4FY13 de-grew by 23.8% YoY, mainly on account of flat generation
growth (despite capacity addition from Chutak and Chamera 3rd Unit) and lower
incentives. The company has booked Rs3.6bn in OI and extraordinary heads on
account of cash received from DESU. Thus, adjusting to all these items, APAT
stood at Rs3.5bn, which is a de-growth of 40.3% YoY. PAF for FY13 is at around
85%.
! Targets 400MWs addition in FY14E: NHPC aims to commission Nimoo Bazgo
(45MWs), 2 units of TLDP 3 (66MWs) and Uri 2 (1 unit) Parbati III (260MWs) by
the end of FY14E. With the commission date of Uri 2 anticipated in June 2013,
the project has seen unforeseen slip-ups in the electro mechanical works.
Similarly for TLDP 4, since March 20, 2013, HEP is on a standstill on account of
stoppage of construction by HCC.
! Debtors – some respite: NHPC has realised close to Rs2.4bn from DESU and
interest thereon in Q4FY13. However, debtor position of Rs20bn is flat QoQ.
! Valuation and Recommendation: The stock is trading at a P/BV of 0.8x FY15E.
Further, pass-through of water cess in the tariff and receivables from various
SEBs continue to nullify the increase in ROE impact. However, capacity addition
and improvement in operational performance in a seasonally strong Q1-
Q2FY14E would be the key things to look forward to. We have downgraded our
numbers and TP based on lower capacity addition and incentives. We maintain
‘Accumulate’ on the stock.
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revenue in Q4FY13 de-grew by 23.8% YoY, mainly on account of flat generation
growth (despite capacity addition from Chutak and Chamera 3rd Unit) and lower
incentives. The company has booked Rs3.6bn in OI and extraordinary heads on
account of cash received from DESU. Thus, adjusting to all these items, APAT
stood at Rs3.5bn, which is a de-growth of 40.3% YoY. PAF for FY13 is at around
85%.
! Targets 400MWs addition in FY14E: NHPC aims to commission Nimoo Bazgo
(45MWs), 2 units of TLDP 3 (66MWs) and Uri 2 (1 unit) Parbati III (260MWs) by
the end of FY14E. With the commission date of Uri 2 anticipated in June 2013,
the project has seen unforeseen slip-ups in the electro mechanical works.
Similarly for TLDP 4, since March 20, 2013, HEP is on a standstill on account of
stoppage of construction by HCC.
! Debtors – some respite: NHPC has realised close to Rs2.4bn from DESU and
interest thereon in Q4FY13. However, debtor position of Rs20bn is flat QoQ.
! Valuation and Recommendation: The stock is trading at a P/BV of 0.8x FY15E.
Further, pass-through of water cess in the tariff and receivables from various
SEBs continue to nullify the increase in ROE impact. However, capacity addition
and improvement in operational performance in a seasonally strong Q1-
Q2FY14E would be the key things to look forward to. We have downgraded our
numbers and TP based on lower capacity addition and incentives. We maintain
‘Accumulate’ on the stock.
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