26 May 2013

India Consumer Tracking Institutional Ownership - Mar'13 Qtr; JPMorgan

In this report, we take stock of ownership trends in our India Consumer Staples
and Retail coverage. Over the past 12 months, we continue to see a trend where
FIIs have increased their ownership across our coverage universe (except GSK
Consumer and UNSP) while DIIs have reduced.
 FII ownership trends. Over the Mar’13 qtr, FIIs continued to increase
ownership across most consumer staples and retail stocks under our coverage
universe. A prominent increase has been in the case of Future Retail (+390bps
q/q), ITC (+91bps q/q), Jubilant Foodworks (+83bps q/q), Titan (+78bps q/q),
United Spirits (+76bps q/q), GCPL (+67bps q/q), Dabur (+64 bps q/q) and
Nestle India (+62bps q/q). However, they have reduced ownership in GSK
Consumer (-423bps q/q) post open offer by the parent. Over the past 12 months,
FIIs have enhanced their positions in all our staples and retail coverage universe
apart from UNSP (-80bps y/y) and GSK Consumer. Titan (+412bps y/y),
Jubilant Foodworks (+374 bps y/y), GCPL (+291bps y/y), HUL (+267bps y/y),
and ITC (+228bps y/y) have been the key favorites for FIIs.
 DII ownership trends. DIIs continued to reduce their ownership in consumer
stocks with prominent decline seen in GSK Consumer (-15ppt q/q) post open
offer by the parent, Future Retail (-170bps q/q), Dabur (-88bps q/q), Nestle India
(-60bps q/q), and HUL (-44 bps q/q). Insurance companies’ ownership was
maintained/reduced in all coverage stocks except marginal increase in Titan.
Over the past 12 months, DIIs ownership has reduced for stocks in our coverage
universe.
 FII:DII Ratio increases for most of consumer stocks. The FII/DII ratio has
steadily gone up for our entire coverage universe over past 12 months with most
increase seen for GSK Consumer and GCPL.
 Promoter Shareholding Changes: United Spirits (-200bps q/q) and Jubilant
Foodworks (-80bps q/q) were the key stocks witnessing a decline in promoter
holding. Promoter shareholding for GSK Consumer increased from 43.2% to
72.5% post open offer by the parent. Future Retail also saw 50bps q/q increase
in promoter shareholding.
 Retail ownership trends: Non-institutional ownership increased for United
Spirits (+140bps q/q) and Dabur (+20bps q/q). Rest of the stocks saw their retail
ownership reduced/maintained during the quarter
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