Remain Neutral
Not withstanding the largely in line bottom-line, SBI’s Q2FY13 core operating
performance and asset quality matrix disappointed us. Cautious management
commentary, overhang of high GNPA (5.2%), incremental restructuring and
potential adverse impact of monsoon failure should lead to
underperformance in the near term. We maintain Neutral stance on the stock
with a revised price target of Rs2,200.
Asset quality: pain persists: Asset quality matrices continued to worsen
further with: 1) slippages at Rs71bn (revised down from Rs 85bn) indicating 3%
annualised slippage rate 2) GNPA going up 4% QoQ to 5.2% - highest in
industry 3) PCR eroding by ~290bps to 54%. Meanwhile, the cumulative
restructured portfolio increased by ~10% QoQ to 4.4% of loans while
cumulative slippages from the pool stood at ~20%. While the restructured
portfolio remained lower than that of PSB peers (8-9% of loans), the stress
asset creation (slippages + incremental restructured) was high at Rs118bn
compared with ~Rs100bn run rate in recent quarters.
NIM contracts QoQ: NII grew by a weak 5% YoY to Rs110bn (vs our estimate
of Rs113bn). Sequentially, NIM witnessed contraction of 23 bps QoQ, led by
excess liquidity of ~Rs600bn and continued focus on large corporates and
home/car loans for growth. From a geographical perspective, domestic NIMs
moderated by 18bps to 3.68% while International NIMs saw a sharper decline
(by 35bps) to 1.42% as the bank witnessed weaker spreads in the case of Trade
Finance, its main lending activity in international business and due to rupee
depreciation. On a blended basis, the management now guides for 3.5% NIM
for FY13 (from 3.75% earlier), which seems achievable.