18 November 2012
UBS - Yield compression – how much is too :: PDF link
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/136280255/UBS---Yield-compression---how-much-is-too
Rupee worst performer globally during 1-month period: rediff
Amid re-ignited concerns over the macro-economic scenario in India and abroad, the rupee has again slipped below the 55-level against dollar, the largest fall among its major peers globally in the past 30 days.
As against the US dollar, the rupee has sharply fallen from 52.88 levels one month ago to 55.16 on Friday, marking a drop of over 4.2 per cent.
This is the largest fall vis-a-vis the US dollar in the past one month among 25 major currencies across Asia, Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa.
The rupee had closed at its life-time low of 57.12 against the US dollar on June 22 this year. In February, rupee had strengthened to as high as Rs 49.
Within Asia, the steep depreciation of rupee is followed by the Japanese Yen, which has dropped around 2.9 per cent in the past one month. Among other Asian currencies, Singapore dollar has slipped 0.66 per cent, Malaysia's Ringgit by 0.6 per cent and Indonesia's Rupiah by 0.42 per cent.
On the other hand, China's Yuan has gained 0.45 per cent against the US dollar, while Australia's dollar has also appreciated by 0.37 per cent in the same period.
"Recent economic data like exports, imports, balance of payments and deficit has been bad. There also have been intermittent withdrawals by the FIIs in the stock market.
"The recent worries over US economy have also not helped the rupee's cause. A combination of these factors has dragged down our currency," Dhanlaxmi Bank Executive Vice-President (Treasury) Srinivasa Raghavan said.
Analysts also feel there has been an increase in speculative activity in the NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward) forex segment.
NDF market is an offshore market to trade and hedge in currencies like the rupee (which are not fully convertible) and many institutions are betting on a further fall, said the head of treasury at a nationalised bank.
Among the major currencies in Europe, Middle East and Africa, Israeli 'New Sheqel' has depreciated by around 4 per cent against the US dollar, followed by Euro's 2.78 per cent drop, Russian Ruble's 2.77 per cent fall and Swiss Franc's 2.4 per cent loss.
The Kuwaiti Dinar has been one of the lesser hit currencies in this zone, falling around 0.52 per cent. The South African Rand has, however, lost 1.88 per cent value against the US dollar. The losses registered by the Moroccan Dirham are steeper at 2.27 per cent.
Across major American currencies, the Canadian dollar, Mexican Peso, Brazil Real, Argentine Peso and Chilean Peso have fallen by 1.5-2.5 per cent against the US dollar.
Forex experts are divided over the rupee's future with some seeing respite in the short-term. "The rupee could face the resistance at 55.25 levels," India Forex Advisors' Founder and CEO Abhishek Goenka said.
Others feel things could get worse for the rupee. "For currency, our view is that it is into impulse of falling trend and it will reverse the direction if it breaks the level of 48. Till then we may expect range bound activity between 51 and 56. If it breaks 58 then on the higher side it may jump to 61 levels," Kotak Securities' Technical Research Head Shrikant Chouhan said.
A falling rupee makes crude oil and fertilisers, which India imports in large quantities, costlier and consequently hit the overall economic health of the country.
Nov 18: Weekly Update: Market & Economy: ICICI Sec
Equity Outlook
Reliance Mutual Fund
IDFC Mutual Fund
Overweight on:
▪ Consumer facing - Thematic stocks with good profitability and
possibility of sustained growth.
▪ Stocks leveraged to the domestic economy and at reasonable
valuations
▪ Select Large-cap IT stocks – available significantly below historical
valuations.
▪ Increased exposure to Financials, Private , select NBFC’s and select
PSU’s.
▪ We continue to remain over-weight in Pharma due to structural drivers
& favorable currency
Underweight on:
▪Oil & Gas – Both Regulatory and volume growth uncertainty
persists.
▪FMCG – Valuations appear stretched in several pockets.
▪Commodities – remain underweight due to both domestic and
international price & demand scenario.
Overweight on:
▪ We like the consumer businesses, we have seen some moderation in discretionary spend in the recent past. Looking forward in the
current quarter which is the festive season, demand should resurface. Retail credit is showing above average growth rates as also
reflected in the banking sector (retail finance) results– Fundamentally the consumer business still remains consolidated, and
the balance sheets are in no manner stretched.
▪ From a portfolio strategy point of view in the financial services space we are unable to reconcile the deviation in the market caps of the
top 5 banks. We have started allocating money to the state owned banks which we think are at distressed valuation.
Goldman Sachs - Top ideas during results season :: PDF link
Goldman Sachs - Top ideas during results season
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/136280288/Goldman-Sachs---Top-ideas-during-results-season
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/136280288/Goldman-Sachs---Top-ideas-during-results-season
Eicher Motors:: Operating performance disappoints ; Maintain Neutral :: Centrum
Operating performance disappoints ; Maintain Neutral
The 3QCY13 operating performance of Eicher Motors (EML) reflected significant
pressure on its Truck & Bus segment with VECV’s EBITDA margins coming at 5.8% (one
of the lowest in the past several quarters) compared to our estimate of 7.3%. Royal
Enfield business also marginally disappointed with EBITDA margins at 15.1% compared
to our estimate of 15.8%. As a result, Consolidated EBITDA margins for EML stood at
7.5% compared to our estimate of 8.9%. Though the Royal Enfield business is doing
extremely well, we continue to believe that current discounts and negligible rise in fleet
operators’ pricing power suggest weak demand environment for M&HCV goods
segment. We expect the recovery to be gradual for the M&HCV goods segment over
2HFY13-FY14E and await meaningful signs of recovery in the investment cycle before
re-rating the stock. We continue to maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with target
price of Rs.2,433.
Priority is to provide fair, efficient, transparent, cost-effective market :: Business Line
The cost of transaction is the biggest issue in stock market measurement. If one is able to keep the cost low, he will end up serving all stakeholders on the bourses, says Ashish Kumar Chauhan, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, BSE.
In a chat with Business Line, he spoke of the challenges and prospects of the nation’s and Asia’s oldest bourse.
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