10 October 2012

Aurobindo Pharma - IndiaNivesh Sec


Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. | Aurobindo Pharma achieved target price of Rs 150..….revise target price upward to Rs 188 & maintain BUY............|

On 9th April 2012, post management meet, we came out with detailed report on Aurobindo and then prevailing market price of Rs 113 and recommended Buy on the stock with the target price of Rs 150. Yesterday, (as on 9th October 2012), stock achieved our target, yielding 33% returns.  We now upgrade our target price to Rs 188 & maintain BUY on the stock. Our Take & Valuations: We are of the view that company’s operational efficiencies are likely to improve going forward from Q3FY13E mainly on the back of sincere measures taken by management in the past, incremental revenue from US, increase in asset turnover linked with higher capacity utilization which would lead to improvement in ROCE. At CMP of Rs 150, the stock trades at PE multiple of 12.9x of FY13E & 8x of FY14E earnings estimates. Earlier at market price of Rs 113 (for details refer “Management Meet Update” released on 9th April 2012) we had recommend buy on the stock with target price of Rs 150, which was achieved yesterday. We revise target price upward to Rs 188 (Valuing at 10x of FY14E EPS estimates)  & maintain BUY on the stock.

Update on L&T Order Wins: Do current Trends see signs of revival? - IndiaNivesh Sec

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. | Update on L&T Order Wins: Do current Trends see signs of revival? 

L&T has publicly reported order wins to the tune of Rs 143 bn during Q2FY13E. On a whole, we expect the company to report ~Rs 165 bn worth of project wins in Q2FY13E....  After taking in to account recent reform announcements, there exists a possibility for the company to attain lower end of its FY13E guidance. | Valuation: 

At CMP of Rs 1,630, L&T (on consolidated basis) is trading at FY13E and FY14E, P/E multiple of 18.7x and 16.8x, respectively.

INFY Q2 results & how wld it extrapolate to entire IT bunch -Motilal Oswal



The sentiment for Infosys has remained fairly weak from the guidance point of view for the last couple of quarters. People are entering Friday with a reasonable level of keeping that backdrop in mind. What is more important is that we do not see any change in the core dollar revenue growth for the acquisition that they did.

They may revise the numbers to incorporate that excluding the core business numbers. Basically, in terms of the rupee EPS guidance, they had factored in the currency at 55 last quarter. This quarter, if they assume currency closer to 52, there will be some tick down in the number. Basically, the currency will play an important part.

Dish TV - Offers a free ride on digitisation highway :: Edelweiss, PDF link


As the deadline for digitisation inches closer, in a move that clearly defines Dish TVs aggressive target to acquire subscribers in Phase 1 cities, it will offer 70 channels (mostly FTA) free for life. We believe that Dish TV is targeting subscribers at the bottom of pyramid for whom the high cost of STB can be negated by zero monthly charges. This will help further reduce DishTVs churn rate as there will not be any blackout due to non-payment of monthly subscription fees. We do not expect any significant pressure on ARPU since most Indian viewers are habituated to watching pay channels. We continue to remain positive on Dish TV and expect it to be the key beneficiary of digitization and recent INR appreciation. Maintain BUY’.

Alcoa - Above expectation results; Q3CY12 Result Excerpts:: Edelweiss, PDF link


In its Q3CY12 result commentary, Alcoa has cut its global aluminium demand growth estimate for 2012 to 6% from 7% earlier. It also reduced its industry deficit estimate to 262kt for 2012 from 515kt due to low demand. Alcoa continues to believe that the current aluminium price is depressed compared to fundamentals thereby indicating a price recovery. The stable QoQ performance of its rolled products business is broadly in-line with our expectations for Novelis for Q2FY13.


Pharmaceuticals - Q2FY13 result preview - Buoyant quarter, pricing policy an overhang:: Edelweiss

We expect the pharma universe to continue its growth trajectory led by strong uptick in the US and emerging markets, while domestic growth could tone down due to delayed monsoon. Though margins are expected to remain steady QoQ, YoY they are likely to expand on back of higher realisations. Moreover, the recent appreciation of INR could reverse MTM forex losses for players such as Ranbaxy (RBXY), Glenmark (GNP) and Aurobindo (ARBP). We also expect one-off opportunities to benefit Sun (SUNP), Dr. Reddy’s (DRRD) and Cipla. Among mid caps, IPCA and ARBP are expected to report better growth and earnings.

FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 10-10-2012


FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 10-10-2012


CategoryBuySellNet
ValueValueValue
FII
2079.28
1671.68407.6
DII
733.42
1129.78-396.36
 
 

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Oct-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 10-Oct-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES489731211.69832052224.0557636815422.53-1012.37
INDEX OPTIONS46969813341.2746062413101.70170334248136.67239.58
STOCK FUTURES30105909.86440941334.17101390629599.29-424.31
STOCK OPTIONS508881587.53518671626.74792772448.60-39.21
      Total-1236.30

 
 

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How to use Calendar Spread Strategy: :: Business Line

Calendar spread strategy involves simultaneous buying and selling of options (or futures) having the same contract specifications except the expiration dates. So if you buy (sell) a 6,000 call option expiring in November and simultaneously sell (buy) a 6,000 call option expiring in December then you are engaging in calendar spread strategy. It can also be done with put option. Calendar spreads in futures will involve simultaneously going long in futures and shorting futures with different expiration dates.

Tips to buy health insurance policy:: Business Line


A viable option is to choose a lifetime plan or one that provides insurance cover post-retirement as well.
Growing incidence of lifestyle diseases and rapidly rising medical costs have made health insurance one of the most bought insurance products these days. To meet the growing demand, health insurance companies have introduced several innovative plans to cater to the needs of the consumers and the target buyer group. The consumers are literally spoilt for choice. However, buying health insurance calls for greater awareness and cost-benefit balancing by consumers in order to buy the best product to provide maximum cover at reasonable cost.

ICICI Pru Balanced fund - Invest ::Business Line


Stocks in News - October 10, 2012-EDEL


 Stocks in News
    P&G to invest INR 15.40bn in Indian arm (ET)
    Polaris Software owner barred from stocks trade (ET)
    Explorers ONGC and Oil to give $56/ barrel discount to refiners (ET)
    Irish Co CRH drops plan to acquire stake in Jaypee’s Guj Cement unit (ET)
    Deccan Chronicle has time till Friday to provide guarantees (ET)
    R-Power raises $302mn via ECB for Solar project (ET)
    NMDC cuts ore prices by up to 11%, but steel cos not excited (ET)
    Panel seeks attorney general’s opinion on 2G spectrum fees; BSNL, MTNL plan to seek exemption from one-time spectrum fee (ET)
    RBI fines ICICI Bank, ING Vysya for KYC violations (ET)
    RIL may shut KG D6 fields in 2015-16 (MINT)
    Axis Bank cuts deposit rate (MINT)
    Coal min blinks, oks fuel deals sans PPAs (DNA)

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) - October 10, 2012-EDEL


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    It was a rather lackluster trading session as a promising start to the day did not live upto expectations, ultimately resulting in a narrow trading range marred by intraday volatility. A ‘bullish harami cross’ candlestick pattern has formed on the daily charts couple with a low volume day signature indicating upside risk in the near term. Nifty has managed to regain the 5700 mark which is a psychological boost. Market internals indicate a marginally favorable breadth and a drop in volatility. On the flipside, momentum oscillators on the daily chart have rolled over with the MACD giving a sell cross warning of near-term downside risk. On the whole the index is likely to trade in a range of 5730 to 5630 on the back of mixed technical signals. The 21 and 50 hourly EMAs continue to offer resistance and only a higher high above 5728 will set the bullish tone, whereas any drop to 5650/5630 should be used to enter trading longs as the overall structure continues to remain bullish helped by the bullish pivot at 21-day EMA of 5614 (daily closing basis).
    Trend among the sectoal indices was bent on the bullish side, barring the mild losses in Oil & gas (-0.45%), Power (-0.08%) and Autos (-0.04%) indexes. The top gaining sectors of the day were Healthcare (+1.14%), IT (+1.10%) and FMCG (+1.05%). Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices traded inline with their frontline peer with gains of 0.47% and 0.33% respectively.
    Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, BHEL, ICICIBC, PF, APNT
    Bearish Setups: HMCL, BJAUT, IRB, TTMT/A

POSTPONED:: Steel Ministry to reschedule RINL IPO listing date

The initial public offering of state-run Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL) has been postponed for the third time now. The IPO was scheduled to open on October 15.

Giving its reasoning for the deferral, the steel ministry said, "We will not sell RINL below book value". Currently, the book value of the PSU firm is pegged at Rs 22.52 a share.

Sources close to the development said merchant bankers UBS Securities and Deutsche Equities (India) have proposed Rs 15-17 as the price band.

The government was supposed to come out with the price band for the IPO today. However, in a statement to the media, it said press conference for the announcement has been postponed due to “unavoidable circumstances”.

The 48.9 crore shares IPO was scheduled to open for subscription during October 15-18 and was supposed to be listed on November 1.

The government plans to sell 10 per cent of its stake. The issue was previously deferred twice since the filing of the draft prospectus with market regulator Sebi on May 18 due to reasons as varied as volatile market conditions and fire at the company's Vizag steel-making facility.

RINL is the second largest state-owned steel maker in the country producing three million tonnes per annum (mtpa) at its lone facility at Visakhapatnam. The capacity is being raised to 6.3 mtpa in the current fiscal.

The company has to bring out IPO before November to retain its Navratna status. RINL got the status in November, 2010, subject to its getting listed in two years from the date of acquiring the status.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in January had approved disinvestment of 10 per cent of government's stake in the firm

The government is expecting to raise Rs 1200 crore, much below the earlier assumption of Rs 2500 crore via IPO.

10 Oct: Morning News (click on link to read article) : IFCI Financial Services Limited


Morning News (click on link to read article)
Economic Times

Business Standard

Business Line

Mint

Financial Express

Financial Chronicle

(Click on link to view article)
Thanks and Regards
IFIN: IFCI Financial Services Limited

Sales Traders Commentary- October 10, 2012-EDEL


Sales Traders Commentary
    Indian markets ended higher on Tuesday. Buying in consumer durables, IT and healthcare sectors supported the upside. Lower opening of European indices as well as weaker US Futures also muted the upward movement
    The Sensex closed at 18793, up 84 points while the Nifty lost 28 points to end the day at 5704.
    Major gainers were Larsen & Toubro (2.06%), Infosys (1.85%), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (1.62%), Sterlite Industries (India) (1.59%), Hindustan Unilever (1.46%), and Cipla (1.14%).
    Major losers were GAIL (India) (2.77%), Bharti Airtel (1.83%), Hindalco Industries (1.62%), Bharat Heavy Electricals (1.52%), Tata Motors (0.95%), and NTPC (0.79%)
    The Consumer Durables index was up by 1.47%. Major gainers were Bajaj Electricals (6.21%), Rajesh Exports (5.48%), Titan Industries (1.42%), T T K Prestige (0.4%) and Gitanjali Gems (0.01%).
    The HC index was up by 1.14%. Major gainers were Biocon (4.61%), Aurobindo Pharma (4.39%), Divis Laboratories (2.95%), Cipla (1.14%) and Cadila Healthcare (0.88%).
    The IT index was up by 1.10%. Major gainers were Mphasis (2.08%), Infosys (1.85%), CORE Education and Technologies (0.98%), H C L Technologies (0.28%) and Hexaware Technologies (0.13%).
    The Oil & Gas index was down by 0.45%. Major losers were GAIL (India) (2.77%), Indian Oil Corporation (0.56%), Gujarat State Petronet (0.43%), Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (0.43%) and Reliance Industries (0.4%).
    Globally, Asia ended on a mixed note while European indices were trading in the red.

Pharmaceuticals - Revisiting CRAMS; sector update:: Edelweiss

Positive trends in major lead indicators — R&D spend, biotech funding, project pipeline and outsourcing penetration—reinforce our optimism in the long term traction in pharma outsourcing space. Moreover, loss of exclusivity on patented products, dwindling R&D productivity and internal cost pressures have made outsourcing imperative for global pharma majors. We strongly believe that a combination of expanding pipelines and shrinking internal resources will further spur outsourcing. Additionally, Asian countries are garnering higher share of the CRAMS space as the global economic balance is shifting from the West to the East.