Our latest channel check indicates a subdued demand across regions, largely due to a pick-up in monsoons. Over the month, cement prices have declined by ~INR3-60/ bag in the trade category and by ~INR5-50/ bag in the non-trade category across regions. While the current all India average price (for trade category) is down ~4% vs the average of Q1FY13, the average so far in Q2FY13 is down just 1% QoQ (as compared to a dip of ~6%-8% QoQ seen in Q2 of each of the last two years). While the recent hike in diesel prices will increase freight costs for our coverage companies in the range of INR70-100 per tonne, we believe the industry will be able to pass it on to consumers.
16 September 2012
The FDI in retail is a positive development for CESC as it entails not only incremental fund requirements to come from a foreign partner, but also a benchmark value for Spencer’s (CESC’s retail arm) along with benefits from such a strategic tie-up. We believe this eliminates the overhang of earnings diversion from its power business to retail venture, thereby leading to a potential re-rating once the deal gets finalized. Maintain BUY with TP of INR431 (excl Spencer’s).