Category-W​ise Turnover 31-Jan-12

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Trade Date	Category	Buy Value in Rs.Crores	Sell Value in Rs.Crores
31-Jan-12	Mutual Funds	196.51	85.68	110.83
31-Jan-12	Proprietory Trades	35440.32	36293.97	-853.65
31-Jan-12	Others	37254.22	37288.66	-34.44
Notes :
1.  Buy / Sell value at the end of day:
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
2. Others exclude FIIs, Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades

 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 31-Jan-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 31-Jan-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	83628	2150.15	68577	1767.60	451440	11726.57	382.54
INDEX OPTIONS	337559	8669.65	320770	8235.74	1206185	31340.36	433.91
STOCK FUTURES	66402	1772.31	66829	1798.64	968219	26647.18	-26.33
STOCK OPTIONS	27886	737.97	28395	750.83	36820	995.82	-12.86
						Total	777.26

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FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 31-01-2012

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Category	Buy	Sell	Net
	Value	Value	Value
FII	3460.78	2836.68	624.1
DII	1299.94	1541.2	-241.26

 

 

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Greaves Cotton Hit by one-offs; Retain BUY :Emkay

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Greaves Cotton

Hit by one-offs; Retain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs83                                        Target Price: Rs90

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n     Net profit declines by 23% yoy to Rs342 mn – led by 440 bps drop in EBITDA margin (due to one-offs & lower gross margins). Adjusting for one-offs, APAT meets expectations

n     Led by supply ramp-up to Tata Motors, Engines delivers (Sales up 17% yoy, EBIT margins at 16.7%). Infrastructure revenues fall 25% yoy with EBIT loss of Rs28 mn

n     Supply to Tata Motors ramps-up to 5,500 units per month (Vs 4,000 supplied in Sep’11). GCL expects to further ramp-up to 8,000 units per month in FY13E

n     Reduce earnings down by 13% for FY12E to Rs6.0 and by 9% for FY13E to Rs7.2 per share. Retain BUY rating with price target of Rs90 per share

Hold Oberoi Realty ( Target :Rs 246 :: ICICI Securities

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S a l e s   s l o w   d o w n ,   m a  r g i ns   s u r p r i s e   p o s i t i v e l y …
Oberoi Realty’s (ORL) results in Q3FY12 were marginally below our
estimates. The topline at | 187.3 crore was lower owing to lower
revenues booking from projects (| 122.2 crore vs. our estimate of | 163
crore). Margins, however, were surprisingly higher at 60.5% led by
superior residential EBITDA margins  of ~62% in Q3FY12 vs. ~51% in
H1FY12. Consequently, PAT, at | 102.1 crore, was marginally below
estimates, despite a lower topline. The dampening factor was lower
presales volume of 1,24,023 sq ft  vs. 1,51,421 sq ft in Q3FY11 and
1,86,036 sq ft in Q2FY12, with cooling down of Esquire sale (albeit at
higher realisation. Additionally, Esquire revenue recognition is expected
in H1FY13 vs. Q4FY12, as guided earlier, leading to shifting of earnings to
FY13. We believe timely launch of new projects would hold key for ORL’s
sales volume, going ahead.
ƒ Pre-sales volumes softens, Esquire cools down…
The pre-sales volume, at 1,24,023 sq ft vs. 1,51421 sq ft in Q3FY11 and
1,86,036 sq ft in Q2FY12, was lower as sales volume from Esquire
cooled down to ~68,000 sq ft vs.  ~1,27,000 sq ft in Q2FY12. The
management, however, sounded confident of getting the sales volume
back in the Goregaon projects once it nears completion and on the
overall front with new launches slated in FY13.
ƒ Esquire to reach threshold in FY13; four launches in FY13E…
ORL has indicated that Oberoi Esquire would reach revenue recognition
threshold in H1FY13 vs. Q4FY12 indicated earlier. As a result, we now
defer Esquire FY12E revenue recognition to FY13E leading to a sharp
jump in FY13 earnings. Furthermore, ORL expects to launch four
projects in FY13 namely Worli (~1.5 mn sq ft), Mulund residential Phase
I (~1.6 mn sq ft), Exquisite phase III (~1.7 mn sq ft) and a small project
in Bandra. ORL has also bought property in a JV at Goregaon. The
development plans for the latter two projects are in a nascent stage.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 9.9x FY13 EPS and 1.7x FY13 P/BV. We
have assigned a HOLD rating to the stock with a target price of | 246 (at
implied ~13% discount to its NAV). While ORL continues to be our
preferred pick in the sector, we would like to see progress on new
launches and momentum in sales volume in the coming quarters.

KPIT Cummins: Volumes grow, Pricing marginally higher :: Nirmal Bang

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The company reported good set of numbers and has revised guidance upwards for FY12E. For Q3FY12E, Dollar Revenues moved up 4.3% q-o-q, Rupee revenues climbed up 16.6% q-o-q and EBIDTA stretched 166 bps q-o-q.

Revenues advanced - Volumes grow, Pricing marginally higher

Revenues in $ terms grew 4.3% q-o-q, 21.6% y-o-y at $73.4 mn. This was supported by 4% volume growth q-o-q and Price improvement of 70-80 bps. In Rupee terms, revenues grew by 16.6% q-o-q, 38.4% y-o-y at Rs.378.9 crores. The Top Client ‘Cummins’ contributed 24% of the revenues, while the contribution from the Top 10 clients has gone down by 2.7% q-o-q.

EBIDTA margins - not a reflection of top line growth

EBIDTA margins expanded 166 bps q-o-q at 15.3%. The onsite revenues expanded (SAP business where margins are comparatively lower) 84 bps q-o-q and kept the margins subdued as against the  robust top line growth. SAP business contributed 33.35% to the total revenues, increase by 274 bps q-o-q. Company continues to hold a strong order book position in this business.

Profits aided by forex gain

Net Profits rose by 21.7% q-o-q at Rs41.1 crs maintaining the margins at 11%. The company made forex gains of Rs.9.8 crores during the quarter.

Revision in Guidance

The company has upped its guidance for the full year i.e. FY12 from range of $275 mn - $285 mn given previously to $289 mn - $291 mn (excluding revenue from SYSTIME). It implies that the  management expects revenue growth in the range of 2.3%-5% (in USD terms) in Q4FY12.

SYSTIME’s financials will be consolidated from Q4FY12E and will contribute around $13 mn-$14 mn to the revenue. Company had acquired 50% of Systime for Rs104 crs and it would acquire the remaining 50% over the next 3 years for which it would have to pay ~Rs150-200 crs. In the current Qtr, the company has acquired additional 7.5% in SYSTIME. In addition, the board has approved an investment of upto $25 million in the company's wholly-owned US-based subsidiary, KPIT Infosystems Inc, in the form of loan/equity in a phased manner.

Valuation & Recommendations

Nirmal Bang are revising our numbers upwards for FY12E and FY13E factoring good growth the company showed in the current quarter. Nirmal Bang have revised Revenues and PAT by 4.0% and 9.2% respectively for FY12E and by 3.4% and 0.1% respectively for FY13E. At CMP, the stock is trading 10.2 times and 8.8 times FY12E and FY13E expected earnings. They continue to maintain ‘Hold’ view on the stock with a target price of Rs190

Buy Federal Bank; Target : Rs 472 ::ICICI Securities

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N I I   a b o v e   e s t i m a t e s ,   m a r g i n s   u p b e a t …
Federal Bank reported stellar NII growth of 18.1% YoY and 11.3% QoQ to
| 528 crore (I-direct estimate: | 490  crore) backed by strong NIM of
3.94%. Non-interest income witnessed 17.9% QoQ growth to | 138 crore
boosted by 46.9% QoQ jump in forex income to | 27.7 crore. Operating
expenses grew 16.5% YoY to | 247 crore as C/I ratio remains stable at
37%. Asset quality remains a concern with GNPA ratio rising to 4%.
ƒ Credit growth revised from 19% to 16% for FY12E
We are revising credit growth estimate for FY12E to 16% as the
bank is expected to grow in line with industry. Credit growth dipped
1.2% sequentially in Q3FY12 to | 33206 crore (17.6% YoY growth)
as corporate book witnessed 2.9% QoQ de-growth | 14571 crore.
ƒ NIM surprises positively in Q3FY12, guided lower for FY13E
Base rate hikes, higher retail mix in portfolio and running down of
high cost bulk deposit helped the bank to improve NIM by 17 bps
sequentially to 3.9% in Q3FY12. YoA rose 17 bps QoQ to 12.9%
while CoD rose 13 bps QoQ to 7.6%. We expect the full impact of
NRE  rate  hikes  to  creep  in  from coming quarters, which will cause
the CoD to rise, thereby keeping NIM under pressure. Management
has guided NIM of ~3.8% for FY12E and ~3.6 for FY13E.
ƒ NPAs increase sequentially…
The GNPA surged 9% QoQ in absolute terms to | 1363.4 crore while
advances slipped 1.2% QoQ, thereby causing a sharp uptick in
GNPA ratio to 4%, up by 36 bps sequentially. NNPA ratio came at
0.7% with PCR of 80.5%. Slippages for the quarter were high at |
330 crore as this time around corporate portfolio deteriorated with |
193 crore slippages. Retail and SME slippage we lower at | 46 crore
and | 91 crore, respectively. Restructured book remained stable at |
1438 crore QoQ with expected pipeline of aviation (exposure of |
400 crore) and Haryana SEB (exposure of | 480 crore) restructuring.
V a l u a t i o n
Stronger margins, higher RoA and improving RoE remain the key
positives for the bank. We maintain target at | 472 at 1.5x FY13E ABV

Sesa Goa Strong headwinds to impact performance HOLD :Emkay

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Sesa Goa

Strong headwinds to impact performance

HOLD

CMP: Rs200                                        Target Price: Rs191

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n     APAT at Rs 6.9 bn includes Rs 1.2 bn contribution from Cairn India. Core APAT of Rs 5.7 bn was down by 47% YoY. The company has declared interim dividend of Rs 2/share

n     EBITDA at Rs 9.1 bn was down 26% YoY. EBITDA/ tonne for iron ore business stood at ~US$41 as against US$47 during Q3FY11 on higher export duty (at 20%) on iron ore

n     Topline up 16% YoY at Rs 26.2 bn on higher sales volume of 5.04 mt (4.78 mt Q3FY11) and better realizations (Rs 4743/ tonne) boosted by sharp depreciation in INR

n     Considering strong regulatory headwinds we reduce our FY13 volume assumptions. Core FY13 EPS now stands at Rs 22 (down 6%). Reduce our SOTP target price to Rs 191; Hold

Hold JSW Steel; Target : Rs 595 :: ICICI Securities

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P e r f o r m s   w e l l   o p e r a t i o n a l l y …
On the operational front, JSW Steel’s quarterly performance in Q3FY12
was better then our expectation. On a YoY basis, crude steel production
volume and sales volume increased by 19% and 20%, respectively. For
Q3FY12, on a standalone basis, the company reported net sales of |
7859.6 crore (higher by 36.2% YoY and 3.1% QoQ). The EBITDA margin
declined 106 bps QoQ and 139 bps YoY to 15.9%. Consequently, the
EBITDA for the period under review stood at | 1252.6 crore (higher by
25.2% YoY but lower by 3.4% QoQ). On account of depreciation in the
value of the rupee against the US dollar over the last three months, the
company reported a translational net loss of | 500.11 crore on
restatement of foreign currency monetary items at the close of the
quarter, which was exceptional in  nature. The ensuing PAT stood at |
168.2 crore after taking into account the exceptional item. It has to be
noted that the company has announced the standalone numbers while
consolidated numbers would be declared in the next few days.
ƒ Robust sales volumes
In Q3FY12, JSW Steel reported crude steel production of 1.94
million tonnes (MT), which was 19% higher YoY. Sales volumes
during the period under review stood at 1.91 MT, which was a
healthy 20% higher on a YoY basis. Despite the concerns regarding
supply of iron ore, during the quarter under review the company
operated at ~72% capacity utilisation level wherein the capacity
utilisation for December 2011 was at a healthy 84% level.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 631, the stock is trading at 6.0x and 5.6x its FY12E and
FY13E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Over the last couple of years, JSW Steel
had rapidly expanded its capacity and reported healthy growth in its
volume numbers (CAGR of 33% in FY09-FY11). We have valued the stock
at 5.5x its FY13 EV/EBITDA and arrived at a target price of | 595 and
assigned a HOLD rating to the stock.