Q2FY13 Results marginally ahead of estimates
OIL’s Q2FY13 net profit of Rs9.5bn was marginally ahead of our estimate of Rs9.1bn. Net revenues for the quarter stood at Rs24bn (yoy -26.6% qoq +2.9%). OIL’s subsidy burden for the quarter was Rs20.8bn resulting in fall in its net realization to $52.5/bbl (yoy -39.1% qoq -2.5%). Crude oil sales volume declined on annual basis by 2.4% while gas production increased by 0.9%. On a sequential basis, however, gas sales increased by 13% on account of resumption of operations at Numaligarh refinery which witnessed a shutdown during the previous quarter. Operating profit for the quarter of Rs11.5bn was ahead of our estimate of Rs10.7bn while operating profit margin was 47.8%.
We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a price target of Rs578. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 7.5x and 3.3x FY13e EPS and EBITDA respectively.
Actual v/s Estimates
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m)
|
Q2FY13
|
Q1FY13
|
qoq (%)
|
Q2FY12
|
yoy (%)
|
LKP Estimates
|
Deviation (%/bps)
| ||||||||
Revenue
|
24,017
|
23,333
|
2.9%
|
32,703
|
-26.6%
|
23,304
|
3.1%
| ||||||||
EBITDA
|
11,472
|
10,962
|
4.7%
|
16,202
|
-29.2%
|
10,701
|
7.2%
| ||||||||
EBITDA (%)
|
47.8%
|
47.0%
|
79 bps
|
49.5%
|
-178 bps
|
45.9%
|
185 bps
| ||||||||
PAT
|
9,546
|
9,299
|
2.6%
|
11,385
|
-16.2%
|
9,084
|
5.1%
| ||||||||
LKP Research
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