28 September 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)- September 28, 2012-EDEL


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    The final trading session for September series F&O passed on a lackluster note as the benchmark indices traded in a narrow range and lacked the usual volatility of the quadruple witching days. Nifty opened on a flat note and climbed towards the 5700 mark in the first half, but persistent selling / resistance led to a drop back down to previous day’s low of 5638 in the final hour. Once again we saw the index hovering around its 21-hourly EMA of 5664 indicating a sideways corrective action. Volumes were on the higher side, but the breadth remained extremely flat once again. Volatility subsided marginally to 16.91 indicating continuous benign risk environment. Momentum oscillators clearly represent the sideways corrective nature of the market as the hourly MACD is on the verge of completing its corrective cycle at the zero line, after which the next leg higher should resume. Nifty is trading in the negative for the week, and needs to close above 5691 to maintain its weekly winning streak and thus keep the bulls in the game in the short-term. It is recommended to re-enter longs on supports to 5620 / 5600, targeting the upper boundary of the upward sloping trend channel at 5750/ 5800. Any close below 5600 would negate the short-term bullish bias and call for a retracement down to 5530.
    Once again, the markets ended flat, resulting in a mixed performance of sectoral indices. Gains were registered for FMCG (+1.51%), Cap Goods (+0.91%) and Realty (+0.42%) indexes, whereas Oil & Gas (-1.60%), IT (-1.10%) and Metals (-0.52%) indices lost ground. Continued outperformance was seen for Mid-cap (+0.49%) and Small-cap (+0.15%) indices.
    Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, BHEL, DLFU, GAIL, TPWR, CIPLA, HPCL
    Bearish Setups: TCS, DRRD, BHARTI, COAL

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