24 August 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) : 24 Aug: Edelweiss


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    The penultimate session of the week settled absolutely flat but not before some strong intraday activity. Nifty tested a higher high of 5448 in the first half and went into profit talking mode in the second half, dropping ~54 points from the high and briefly breaking below the 5400 mark. However, buying emerged at the 5400 mark to take it back above the safe zone, resulting in formation of a ‘long-legged doji’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart reflecting indecision. Now  such a pattern suggests a pause within a trend and a possible consolidation  before the rally resumes. Hourly momentum has rolled bearish, whereas the daily momentum has turned sideways and lackluster. Market internals indicate a higher turnover and an adverse breadth, with an A/D ratio of 1:1.2. There was a minor uptick seen in volatility with India VIX trading at 16.12 from 16 levels in the previous day. Nifty has strong support at the multiple swing highs point of 5345 which is expected to keep the trend intact and possibly be the lower band of the trading range. On the weekly charts, Nifty needs to close above 5366 to maintain its fourth consecutive positive trend. For the coming session we expect Nifty to trade between 5435 and 5345.

    It was once again a mixed session in terms of sectoral performances where the defensives attracted buying interest whereas the high beta witnessed selling pressure. The top gaining sectors were IT (+1.80%), FMCG (+0.88%) and Healthcare (+0.51%); and amongst the top losing sectors were Oil & Gas (-1.05%), Autos (-0.83%) and Cap Goods (-0.76%). Mid-cap and Small-cap indices continue to lad their frontline counterpart with marginal losses of -0.08% and -0.12% respectively.

    Bullish Setups: INFO, ACC, TCS, GAIL, CNXBANK, TTMT, CAIR, HUVR
    Bearish Setups: IDEA, HDIL, HNDL

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