08 July 2012

Automobile Sector Monthly Update – June 2012: Angel Broking


For June 2012, automakers posted poor volumes, largely on the expected line, amid slowdown in economic activity and negative consumer sentiments fuelled by higher inflation and increasing cost of ownership. The slowdown in demand is now clearly evident across most product segments (ex. LCV and UV), which continues to impact overall growth. Among auto majors, Mahindra and Mahindra (MM, automotive division) and Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported better volumes defying the overall slowdown; however, Tata Motors (TTMT), TVS Motor (TVSL) and Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) registered poor performance during the month. Going ahead, while we expect LCV and UV sales to sustain their growth momentum, sales of the two-wheeler, passenger cars, medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) and tractor segments are expected to remain under pressure.

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TTMT reported a 3% yoy (flat mom) decline in its total volumes to 64,341 units, led by a 20.9% yoy (14.4% mom) dip in passenger vehicle (PV) sales. The PV segment witnessed a steep decline due to a 35% and 46% yoy decrease in Indica and Indigo sales, respectively. The CV segment performed better during the month, driven by LCV sales, which maintained their strong momentum and registered 24.9% yoy growth. MHCV sales, however, fell sharply by 21.5% yoy due to subdued demand, led by slowing industrial activity.
Ashok Leyland (AL) registered strong growth of 27.9% yoy (18.5% mom), primarily driven by incremental volumes of the recently launched small commercial vehicle Dost. Commercial vehicle sales (ex. Dost) declined by 6.1%  on a yoy basis but surged by 18.5% on a qoq basis, led by pick-up in demand in the southern region.
MSIL reported slightly better-than-expected volume during the month, reporting 20.3% yoy growth (down 2.3% mom), led by 19.3% (down 6.6% mom) and 27.1% (38.9% mom) yoy growth in domestic and export volumes, respectively. Domestic sales growth during the month, however, was higher on account of low base effect (volume in June 2011 was impacted by labor strike). Domestic volumes continued to be driven by the success of the new launches, Swift, Dzire and Ertiga.
MM reported 11.6% yoy (3.3% mom) growth in total volumes, driven by the strong performance of the automotive segment, which grew by 16.1% yoy (down 6.1% mom). The automotive segment of MM defied the general slowdown in the industry, backed by the strong performance of the UV segment, which posted 33% yoy (down 4.3% mom) growth. The tractor segment surprised positively as it posted 25% sequential growth, driven by 24.8% and 27.6% growth in domestic and export markets, respectively.
Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: BJAUT reported lower-than-expected volumes, posting a 5.9% yoy (2% mom) decline, led by weakness in export sales, which fell by 18.3% yoy (11.1% mom). Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered 4.3% yoy (down 4.1% mom) growth in total volumes, driven by healthy momentum across its major brands Passion and Splendor. TVSL continued its poor run, posting a dismal set of volumes, which declined by 7.5% yoy (4.2% mom), led by poor performance across all its product segments.

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