Anand Rathi Monthly Presentation - June 2012- DEAD CROSS is formed in SENSEX but not in NIFTY yet…

DEAD CROSS is formed in SENSEX but not in NIFTY yet…

NIFTY

NIFTY (5115) has taken very strong support around 4770 and has rebounded strongly and now till 4750 is not breached on downside 5200-5350 on higher side possible. Now  200DMA 5067 plays very important role. Market would maintain 4800-5300 as range, mentioned in last month report.

SENSEX

SENSEX- (16862) has formed Dead Cross as per Dow Theory which is oldest theory of technical analysis which acts with lag impact. Dead Cross is 50DMA 16764 cutting 200DMA 16785 from above. Sensex has recovered from low of 15748 and rally can extend till 17500-17700 before this rally can fizzle out. Sensex from 1990 has corrected every 2 years 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 and now we are in 2012?

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Events to look forward which will determine the market direction..

      On domestic front, IIP data consensus 1.7%, actual (0.1% for the month of April) followed by Monthly inflation data consensus (7.5%) and Advance Tax numbers (15th June).

       On global front, Greece election (17th June), FED meeting (19-20th June).

       Lately Spanish banks have got euro 100bn lifeline, also in a surprise move China has cut rates which is depicting the intensity of the problems the slowdown which the countries are facing.

       But these seem to be temporary measures of pumping liquidity, this is further followed by the rally in the global as well our markets which may be short lived as we see no visible fundamental improvements.

       S&P has already commented that from the BRICS group India would the first one to lose the investment grade.

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