04 June 2012

4 June: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)


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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
After a wide loss in the month of May, the markets were off to a poor start in June with a sharp cut of 1.7% to end the week on a negative note.The benchmark index was under selling pressure from the start of the final session following its Asian peers and traded lower every hour. The selling intensified in the last couple of hours and the Nifty dived below 4850. Despite average trading volumes, the market breadth was strongly in favour of declines with an A/D ratio of 3:1 and a sharp spike in the volatility as represented by the India VIX. Short-term momentum indicators are showing mixed signals, however the direction of price is evidently down after the one week counter trend rally that nearly tested the 200 DMA. With the Asian peers already trading with sharp cuts, the index is expected to open below the 4800 mark and most likely test the lower boundary of the falling trend channel from the Feb 2012 peak at 4750. Any sustained weakness below 4750 would take the index down to 4645 in the near-term. On the other hand, immediate upside is capped at 4905.

Barring the FMCG index (+0.37%), all other sectoral indices ended the down lower. The biggest knock was taken by stocks from the Cap Goods (-3%), Power (-2.5%) and Auto (-2.17%) indexes. Among the broader markets that managed to marginally outperform the frontline index, the Mid-cap index shed 1.46% and the Small-cap index shed 1.22%.

Bullish Setups: ITC, GAIL, IGL
Bearish Setups: DRRD, LICHF, BHEL, APNT, CAIR

  
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