31 May 2012

May 31: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)


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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty felt the jitters a day before the May series derivatives settlement as it dropped 0.79% to close at 4950.The day began on a nervous note with a minor gap down opening but managed to recover some of the losses before the usual last hour weakness pulled it lower towards the low of the day. Yesterday’s price action although in a tight range of 37 points was backed by average volumes an d a poor A/D ratio of 2.5:1. Volatility measure by the India VIX has regained above 25 levels and is threatening to re-test the 27 levels indicating nervousness. Near-term momentum has rolled bearish while still in an overbought state, the MACD trading with a buy crossover indicates a volatile day ahead with a tussle between the bulls and bears likely. We maintain the stance that the current up move is of corrective nature to the preceding fall and a break below 4890 levels will put the focus back down to the resumption of the decline eyeing 4789 initially and possibly head lower over the coming sessions. Upside are expected to be capped at the 200 DMA of 5070.

Barring the IT index (+0.38%), all other sectoral indices ended the day lower. Among the top losers of the day were shares from Auto (-3.97%), Realty (-2.18%) and Banking (-1.77%) indices. The Mid-cap and Small-cap indices too ended with substantial losses of 1.28% and 1.21% respectively.

Bullish Setups: ICICIBC, TATA, JUBI, COAL
Bearish Setups: DRRD, LICHF, BHEL, TTMT

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