28 May 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 28 May


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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Unlike the Fridays of the past, previous week’s session was a very dull one with Nifty trading in a tight range of 45 points throughout the day and ending absolutely flat. Infact, the weekly close too has been flat with marginal gains, managing to snap the four week losing streak. Volumes were on the lower side however the breadth improved in favor of the advances, and the volatility subsided to 25.14 on the India VIX. The ‘morning star’ pattern formed in the earlier session remains in play and we thus expect the index to climb higher in the coming sessions. On the momentum front, price action of the last week has resulted in oscillators rolling bullish (MACD buy cross) on the daily chart indicating an imminent upside. Going into the crucial May series derivatives settlement week, Nifty is poised to retrace the earlier fall upto the 21 day EMA of 4985 and perhaps extend it towards the 200 DMA of 5072, whereas immediate downside is protected by previous week’s low of 4804.

Trend among the sectoral indices was mixed as the higher beta space ended with gains and the defensives ended lower. Among the top gainers were Metals (+0.92%), Cap Goods (+0.89%) and Realty (+0.54%). The defensive losers were FMCG (-0.46%) and Healthcare (-0.13%) indexes. Mid-cap and Small-cap managed to outperform the frontline index with gains of 0.44% and 0.53% respectively.
Bullish Setups: ICICIBC, DLF, RBXY, CNXBANK, AXSB, BATA
Bearish Setups: DRRD, LICHF, JPA

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