18 April 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) : 18 April : Edelweiss

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Indian markets rallied 1.2% in yesterday’s session helped by the surprise reduction of 50 bps on Repo Rate by the RBI resulting in outperformance over the Asian region. Earlier in the day, Nifty opened on a weak note tracing the negative trend across global indices and even dropped down towards 5200 mark from where it rallied post the announcement followed by another minor dip in the afternoon and a subsequent rally by closing. It was quite a volatile day where bulls took the upper hand and are now close to giving a breakout of the two-month long consolidation phase from a ‘falling wedge’ pattern above 5307. Volumes were strong yesterday coupled with a strong breath and a drop in volatility tracked by India VIX. Momentum oscillators continue to trade in a sideways manner and another day of positive trade will result in a bullish turn. For the short-term trend to turn bullish, it is imperative for Nifty to breakout above 5307 and hold above on a daily closing basis for targets of 5440 and 5630. The immediate downside is protected at 5200, followed by the pivot of 200 DMA at 5143.

All sectoral indices ended the day in the green and were led by gains in Realty (+2.41%), Metals (+2.01%) and Cap Goods (+1.67%). Among the prominent underperformers were Healthcare (+0.18%), IT (+0.71%) and Banking (+0.79%) indexes. The broader market, Mid-cap and Small-cap indices underperformed as compared to their frontline benchmark with gains of 0.72% and 0.63% respectively.

Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, NTPC, TTMT, ARBP, GNP, COAL, JSTL
Bearish Setups: ACC, ACEM, IDEA

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