15 March 2012

RBI Policy Preview - Likely to be a non-event :: Edelweiss PDF link

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In the forthcoming mid-quarter monetary policy scheduled for March 15, we expect a status quo on CRR and policy rates. We surmise this on the reasoning that: (a) CRR reduction on March 9 should be adequate to address excessively tight liquidity and hence another cut is not warranted; (b) RBI has raised concerns about surging crude prices; and (c) the central bank will be inclined to wait for the Union Budget (scheduled for March 16, post policy) to get a better sense on fiscal policy for the coming year. 
Nonetheless, slackening of growth in the economy is real and it has faltered much below potential. Given this, RBI is expected to take cognizance of growth (and investment) slowdown and initiate rate cuts in its annual policy meeting in April.
       
       

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