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Mid-quarter review a non-event
Highlights
· Status quo on key policy rates
· Repo – 8.5%, reverse repo – 7.5% and margin standing facility rate – 9.5%
· Reserve ratios maintained
· Cash reserve ratio at 4.75% (75 bps cut with effect from 10th March)
· Statutory liquidity ratio maintained at 24%
· Pause on a rate cuts comes on the back of risks on inflation and an uptick in IIP
· The upcoming budget would be amongst the event drivers on policy action
House view:
Global commodity prices, weak rupee and suppressed fuel prices are potential sources of risk to inflation. Ahike in fuel prices appears imminent even as the chorus for a rate cut is getting louder. Growth has been largely driven consumption with investment demand lagging system wide growth. Credit growth is expected to remain subdued, unless a rate cut kicks in. Over the next couple of months, deposits rates are likely to stay put.
Regards,
CSEC Research
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