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Lupin Pharma (LPC) has launched generic Geodon (Ziprasidone) under
shared exclusivity with Dr. Reddy’s (DRRD) and Sandoz. Ziprasidone has a
total branded value of USD864mn and is used for indication of
schizophrenia, acute mania and bipolar disorder. LPC has launched this
generic in multiple strengths 20 mg, 40 mg, 60 mg and 80 mg. We
highlight that all three companies have launched the generic the same
day.
Impact
We estimate USD32‐35mn sales from the generic over next six months for LPC and
USD25‐26mn at PBT level. We have assumed 70% price erosion to innovator value and
25% market share, assuming a four‐player market including an anticipated launch of
authorized generic (AG) by Pfizer. Its NPV value works out to be INR2.15per share.
Outlook and valuations
Ziprasidone launch is accretive by 3‐5% to LPC’s FY12E and FY13E earnings, respectively,
and has been factored in our estimates. We thus maintain our FY12‐13 EPS estimates of
INR21.5 and INR27.3 per share, respectively.
FY13 is anticipated to be a strong year for LPC, led by 23‐25 product launches including
6 FTFs. We expect strong traction to continue beyond FY13, with the company
continuing to be a frontrunner in mining limited opportunities. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’
recommendation/ rating on the stock.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Lupin Pharma (LPC) has launched generic Geodon (Ziprasidone) under
shared exclusivity with Dr. Reddy’s (DRRD) and Sandoz. Ziprasidone has a
total branded value of USD864mn and is used for indication of
schizophrenia, acute mania and bipolar disorder. LPC has launched this
generic in multiple strengths 20 mg, 40 mg, 60 mg and 80 mg. We
highlight that all three companies have launched the generic the same
day.
Impact
We estimate USD32‐35mn sales from the generic over next six months for LPC and
USD25‐26mn at PBT level. We have assumed 70% price erosion to innovator value and
25% market share, assuming a four‐player market including an anticipated launch of
authorized generic (AG) by Pfizer. Its NPV value works out to be INR2.15per share.
Outlook and valuations
Ziprasidone launch is accretive by 3‐5% to LPC’s FY12E and FY13E earnings, respectively,
and has been factored in our estimates. We thus maintain our FY12‐13 EPS estimates of
INR21.5 and INR27.3 per share, respectively.
FY13 is anticipated to be a strong year for LPC, led by 23‐25 product launches including
6 FTFs. We expect strong traction to continue beyond FY13, with the company
continuing to be a frontrunner in mining limited opportunities. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’
recommendation/ rating on the stock.
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