23 March 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 23 March

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Nifty was hammered down 2.54% in yesterday’s session after a smart rally the day earlier led by weakness across global markets and negative news flow domestically. The index registered a minor higher high of 5385 in the first half and started to slip lower in the afternoon session. The fall accelerated once the 21 and 50 hourly supports were breached and exacerbated in the final hour to nearly test the 5200 mark. As a result, a large bearish outside bar pattern has formed that has negated the gains made in the previous two sessions.The fall was supported by a rise in volatility; a poor A/D ratio of 1:4 and substantial volumes. The 50 day MA (5272) has been breached on a closing basis after nearly three months. ST momentum oscillators that had rolled bullish have once again whipsawed into sell along with a sell crossover on hourly oscillators. The index is likely to end lower for a fifth consecutive week and is only supported by the 200 DMA at 5157 and the earlier trend line break at 5185. The ST trend has turned negative with yesterday’s bearish developments and is likely to improve only if Nifty manages to close above 5335. We maintain our intermediate term positive stance and expect the 200 DMA to act as the critical pivot.
    All the 13 sectoral indices ended on the losing side in yesterday’s carnage led by steep losses in Realty (-4.25%), Power (-3.62%), Banking (-3.41%) and Cap Goods (-3.37%) indices. Even the defensive sectors fell under selling pressure with Healthcare, IT and FMCG losing -1.18%, -1.20% and -1.30% respectively. Broader markets too witnessed substantial selling as the Mid-cap index ended lower by 2.27% and the Small-cap index closed with a loss of 1.68%.

    Bullish Setups: LPC, HUVR, ITC, BHARTI
    Bearish Setups: MSIL, HNDL

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