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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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Uttar Pradesh, by virtue of its monstrous size, has always been the mother of all state elections. But this time around, it was invested with even greater importance because of Rahul Gandhi's brave decision to stake his personal appeal on it.
In the event, Congress's big bout before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections turned into a big rout on Tuesday as Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party crushed Mayawati's BSP and Rahul's aspirations for scripting his party's resurgence in UP. Congress also lost in Punjab - which it was tipped to win - and Goa, and fell short of the majority mark in Uttarakhand.
Congress fared miserably, managing only 28 seats in UP - just six more than its disastrous score five years ago. The performance was, in fact, worse than the worst-case scenario drawn up by the party, raising a big question mark on the effectiveness of Rahul as a vote-catcher. Coming after the party's rout in Bihar two years ago, the UP debacle appeared to underline the limits of the appeal of the party's mascot.
A win in tiny Manipur can hardly be a consolation for a party that was looking for a big bounce from what it thought would be a Super Tuesday. It was banking on a win in Punjab and Uttarakhand as well as a perceptible improvement in UP to bring some respite for the UPA government at the Centre, which has been hit by scams and is hamstrung by a growing perception of inaction.
The results have put paid to any hopes of the UPA regaining an upper hand in decisionmaking, and in negotiations with assertive allies like Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam's victory means that Congress cannot hope to automatically get the SP to play the buffer against Didi's maverick ways.
While the UPA can expect the support of the 22 BSP members in Lok Sabha since Mayawati won't want early elections, its space for manoeuvre will remain cramped not just in pushing through big-ticket economic reforms but also on contentious measures like the NCTC. The results may have also queered Congress's chances of getting its own nominee elected in the presidential elections in July.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR POLITICS AND POLICY
Presidential Polls
The Congress commands a little over 30% of the electoral votes; with allies this could be 40%. But allies like Trinamool and NCP may not rubber-stamp Congress choice. So, it must nominate a candidate who is accepted by regional parties and whom the BJP finds hard to oppose. This may see Cong hunting for a well respected minority or dalit figure.
Balancing Budget
The given wisdom is that presenting a hard Budget to check the fiscal deficit will now be difficult for Pranab Mukherjee. Populism is expected to be back on the agenda. But equally, the FM might pitch for measures to improve the economy and argue that this will pay greater political dividends than economically-crippling sops.
Policy Paralysis?
Supporting SP in UP in return for its support at Centre would have suited Congress best. Now, any deal will be one-sided. So, UPA stays dependent on Mamata, making key reforms tough. Even allies like NCP might flex muscles. Congress will have to heed suggestions of BJP and regional parties if crucial bills are to be passed.
2014- Or Earlier?
Number of parties who favour early polls has risen. Any LS race would be wide open due to Congress's decline and BJP's inability to make matching gains. Still, state bosses like Mamata, Nitish, Patnaik Jayalalithaa and Mulayam would root for an opportunity to cash in on their popularity. Even BJP has indicated it's ready to face polls. No clear national winner.
But while Congress was a loser, the results did not throw up a national winner, highlighting once again the political fragmentation that has compelled patchwork coalitions at the Centre and prevented successive regimes from taking bold decisions even on issues that cry out for attention.
The Congress's torment was caused by two father-son duos, Mulayam-Akhilesh in UP and Parkash-Sukhbir Badal in Punjab, as they moulded a winning formula of projecting change with continuity.
SP's 224 seats is the biggest-ever for any one party in the last two decades. It surpassed BJP's tally in 1991, won on the back of a surcharged Ram temple movement (also Uttarakhand had not been formed then and the UP assembly's strength was 425). The victory was facilitated by the solid support of Muslims to the SP as well as the appeal of a sober Akhilesh among sections that have historically been opposed to SP and on whom Rahul had banked.
Even as SP more than doubled its tally by 128 from 96, and BSP crashed to 80 from 206, Congress and BJP (which slipped to 47 from 50) were reduced to the status of 'alsorans' in a state where both must do well if they wish to lead a coalition at the Centre in two years' time. The success of Akhilesh along with those of B C Khanduri in Uttarakhand and Manohar Parrikar in Goa disprove those who consider moderation and sobriety a handicap in politics.
Congress's defeat in Punjab was a shocker, even if not on the scale of UP. The Badals defied the entrenched revolving-door pattern in Punjab where power has changed hands every five years. The Badal & Badal show helped ally BJP to show up as retaining power in Punjab and cover up the magnitude of its failure in UP.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Uttar Pradesh, by virtue of its monstrous size, has always been the mother of all state elections. But this time around, it was invested with even greater importance because of Rahul Gandhi's brave decision to stake his personal appeal on it.
In the event, Congress's big bout before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections turned into a big rout on Tuesday as Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party crushed Mayawati's BSP and Rahul's aspirations for scripting his party's resurgence in UP. Congress also lost in Punjab - which it was tipped to win - and Goa, and fell short of the majority mark in Uttarakhand.
Congress fared miserably, managing only 28 seats in UP - just six more than its disastrous score five years ago. The performance was, in fact, worse than the worst-case scenario drawn up by the party, raising a big question mark on the effectiveness of Rahul as a vote-catcher. Coming after the party's rout in Bihar two years ago, the UP debacle appeared to underline the limits of the appeal of the party's mascot.
A win in tiny Manipur can hardly be a consolation for a party that was looking for a big bounce from what it thought would be a Super Tuesday. It was banking on a win in Punjab and Uttarakhand as well as a perceptible improvement in UP to bring some respite for the UPA government at the Centre, which has been hit by scams and is hamstrung by a growing perception of inaction.
The results have put paid to any hopes of the UPA regaining an upper hand in decisionmaking, and in negotiations with assertive allies like Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam's victory means that Congress cannot hope to automatically get the SP to play the buffer against Didi's maverick ways.
While the UPA can expect the support of the 22 BSP members in Lok Sabha since Mayawati won't want early elections, its space for manoeuvre will remain cramped not just in pushing through big-ticket economic reforms but also on contentious measures like the NCTC. The results may have also queered Congress's chances of getting its own nominee elected in the presidential elections in July.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR POLITICS AND POLICY
Presidential Polls
The Congress commands a little over 30% of the electoral votes; with allies this could be 40%. But allies like Trinamool and NCP may not rubber-stamp Congress choice. So, it must nominate a candidate who is accepted by regional parties and whom the BJP finds hard to oppose. This may see Cong hunting for a well respected minority or dalit figure.
Balancing Budget
The given wisdom is that presenting a hard Budget to check the fiscal deficit will now be difficult for Pranab Mukherjee. Populism is expected to be back on the agenda. But equally, the FM might pitch for measures to improve the economy and argue that this will pay greater political dividends than economically-crippling sops.
Policy Paralysis?
Supporting SP in UP in return for its support at Centre would have suited Congress best. Now, any deal will be one-sided. So, UPA stays dependent on Mamata, making key reforms tough. Even allies like NCP might flex muscles. Congress will have to heed suggestions of BJP and regional parties if crucial bills are to be passed.
2014- Or Earlier?
Number of parties who favour early polls has risen. Any LS race would be wide open due to Congress's decline and BJP's inability to make matching gains. Still, state bosses like Mamata, Nitish, Patnaik Jayalalithaa and Mulayam would root for an opportunity to cash in on their popularity. Even BJP has indicated it's ready to face polls. No clear national winner.
But while Congress was a loser, the results did not throw up a national winner, highlighting once again the political fragmentation that has compelled patchwork coalitions at the Centre and prevented successive regimes from taking bold decisions even on issues that cry out for attention.
The Congress's torment was caused by two father-son duos, Mulayam-Akhilesh in UP and Parkash-Sukhbir Badal in Punjab, as they moulded a winning formula of projecting change with continuity.
SP's 224 seats is the biggest-ever for any one party in the last two decades. It surpassed BJP's tally in 1991, won on the back of a surcharged Ram temple movement (also Uttarakhand had not been formed then and the UP assembly's strength was 425). The victory was facilitated by the solid support of Muslims to the SP as well as the appeal of a sober Akhilesh among sections that have historically been opposed to SP and on whom Rahul had banked.
Even as SP more than doubled its tally by 128 from 96, and BSP crashed to 80 from 206, Congress and BJP (which slipped to 47 from 50) were reduced to the status of 'alsorans' in a state where both must do well if they wish to lead a coalition at the Centre in two years' time. The success of Akhilesh along with those of B C Khanduri in Uttarakhand and Manohar Parrikar in Goa disprove those who consider moderation and sobriety a handicap in politics.
Congress's defeat in Punjab was a shocker, even if not on the scale of UP. The Badals defied the entrenched revolving-door pattern in Punjab where power has changed hands every five years. The Badal & Badal show helped ally BJP to show up as retaining power in Punjab and cover up the magnitude of its failure in UP.
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