10 February 2012

Nifty to trade in a band; hedge long portfolios ::ET

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By Rakesh Mehta, Research Analyst, Fullerton Securities

After pouring more than $2bn in January, FIIs have already bought equities worth $1 billion so far in February. The Indian market continues to outperform global peers on improving economic scenario and investor sentiments.

Globally, strong economic data from the US, positive newsflow regarding the European debt crisis and robust German factory orders data cheered investors worldwide. Domestically, markets rallied on the back of policy action in sectors like aviation and retail, decent Q3 earnings, rupee appreciation, slowing inflation and CRR cut by the RBI. Going forward, the market will take cues from government policy action and budget expectation.

In the current week, after breaking the crucial 5200 barrier, the Nifty surged to finally cross the key psychological level of 5400. Volatility Index (VIX) has decreased by 3.99% and reached 23.30.

IVs were down while Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) OI wise increased to 1.45, primarily on account of call unwinding at higher strikes. On the call options front, accumulation of open interest is seen at strike price of 5500 indicating the level to act as resistance on the upside.

On the put options front, we have seen the highest addition of open interest at strike price of 5300 thus indicating 5300 to act as immediate support on the downside. Nifty February futures were at 5448, a premium of 36 points over spot closing. F&O data hints towards a range-bound movement between 5300 and 5500. Strategy: We suggest to hedge long portfolios by buying sufficient quantities of February 5200 Put at 30.

The BSE's Sensex staged a late rally to close 0.7% higher on Thursday despite profit-taking through most of the session, as continued foreign fund inflows boosted investor confidence, with banks and automakers leading the rally. The main BSE index rose 123.43 points to end at 17,830.75, with 21 of its components gaining, after falling as much as 0.55%. The main index has risen more than 15% in the past five weeks.

The 50-share NSE index ended up 0.82% at 5,412.35. In the broader market, gainers led losers by about 2.1:1 on volume of around 986.2 million shares.

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