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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
PDF LINK for report- click HERE
O n e - o f f i t e m s d e n t b o t t o m l i n e …
GMR Infrastructure (GMR) reported its Q3FY12 numbers with a higher net
loss largely on account of one-offs, which had a net negative implication
of | 78.7 crore. Adjusting for the same, the company’s net loss was lower
at | 29.3 crore vs. our estimate of adjusted net loss of
| 58.5 crore. The AERA discussion paper on DIAL’s tariff fixation was also
released in January 2012, which suggested an upfront increase in tariffs
of ~334.6% from FY13 and ~148% in the following year vs. DIAL’s
demand of ~774.3% and ~138%, respectively.
ƒ Q3FY12 reported losses higher than expected due to one-offs…
GMR’s net sales grew 47% YoY to | 1,999.3 crore mainly on account of
consolidation of the Male Airport for the full quarter in Q3FY12 (| 304.9
crore) vs. one month in Q3FY11 (| 84.1 crore) and sharp jump in EPC
revenue (| 405.6 crore in Q3FY12 vs. | 82.8 crore in Q3FY11). The
margins at 22.5% were lower than our estimates of 28.9% mainly due to
one-offs worth | 55 crore in the power segment leading to lower margins
of 8.6% in power segment vs. 16.7% in Q2FY12. The bottomline pain,
therefore, was accentuated by one-offs, which had a net negative
implication of | 78.7 crore. Please refer Exhibit 2 on next page for details.
ƒ Discussion paper on tariff fixation out, final verdict in Q4FY12E…
AERA’s discussion paper on tariff fixation was out on January 3, 2012,
which suggested an upfront tariff increase of ~334.6% from FY13 and
~148% in the following year vs. DIAL’s demand of ~774.3% and ~138%,
respectively. Even on AERA’s indicated hike and proposed aero revenues,
if approved, our quick estimates suggest DIAL’s losses would reduce to
| 100 crore in FY13E from losses of | 325 anticipated earlier. Also, GMR’s
consolidated PAT could go up by 1.3x to | 404 crore from our estimates
(please refer page 2 for details). However, we are still awaiting the final
verdict after stakeholder negotiation and will re-work the same after the
final verdict.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 31, the stock is trading at 1.1 FY13 P/BV. We believe any
development on airport tariff fixation and fuel allocation for power
projects will act as a key catalyst for GMR’s stock price performance. We
are assigning a HOLD recommendation on the stock with an SOTP based
price target of | 32/share.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
PDF LINK for report- click HERE
O n e - o f f i t e m s d e n t b o t t o m l i n e …
GMR Infrastructure (GMR) reported its Q3FY12 numbers with a higher net
loss largely on account of one-offs, which had a net negative implication
of | 78.7 crore. Adjusting for the same, the company’s net loss was lower
at | 29.3 crore vs. our estimate of adjusted net loss of
| 58.5 crore. The AERA discussion paper on DIAL’s tariff fixation was also
released in January 2012, which suggested an upfront increase in tariffs
of ~334.6% from FY13 and ~148% in the following year vs. DIAL’s
demand of ~774.3% and ~138%, respectively.
ƒ Q3FY12 reported losses higher than expected due to one-offs…
GMR’s net sales grew 47% YoY to | 1,999.3 crore mainly on account of
consolidation of the Male Airport for the full quarter in Q3FY12 (| 304.9
crore) vs. one month in Q3FY11 (| 84.1 crore) and sharp jump in EPC
revenue (| 405.6 crore in Q3FY12 vs. | 82.8 crore in Q3FY11). The
margins at 22.5% were lower than our estimates of 28.9% mainly due to
one-offs worth | 55 crore in the power segment leading to lower margins
of 8.6% in power segment vs. 16.7% in Q2FY12. The bottomline pain,
therefore, was accentuated by one-offs, which had a net negative
implication of | 78.7 crore. Please refer Exhibit 2 on next page for details.
ƒ Discussion paper on tariff fixation out, final verdict in Q4FY12E…
AERA’s discussion paper on tariff fixation was out on January 3, 2012,
which suggested an upfront tariff increase of ~334.6% from FY13 and
~148% in the following year vs. DIAL’s demand of ~774.3% and ~138%,
respectively. Even on AERA’s indicated hike and proposed aero revenues,
if approved, our quick estimates suggest DIAL’s losses would reduce to
| 100 crore in FY13E from losses of | 325 anticipated earlier. Also, GMR’s
consolidated PAT could go up by 1.3x to | 404 crore from our estimates
(please refer page 2 for details). However, we are still awaiting the final
verdict after stakeholder negotiation and will re-work the same after the
final verdict.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 31, the stock is trading at 1.1 FY13 P/BV. We believe any
development on airport tariff fixation and fuel allocation for power
projects will act as a key catalyst for GMR’s stock price performance. We
are assigning a HOLD recommendation on the stock with an SOTP based
price target of | 32/share.
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