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P o s i t i v e s f a c t o r e d i n , s t o c k f a i r l y v a l u e d …
Cairn India reported its Q3FY12 results with revenues remaining flat YoY
at | 3096.8 crore and PAT growing by 12.5% YoY to | 2261.9 crore in
Q3FY12. The growth in PAT on a YoY basis is mainly attributable to forex
gain of | 301.5 crore (nil in Q2FY12) and other income of | 112.4 crore (
| 34.2 crore in Q2FY12). The average crude oil realisation increased from
US$75.9 per barrel in Q3FY11 to US$101 per barrel in Q3FY12 due to
higher crude oil prices. Cairn has commenced production from the
Bhagyam field in the current quarter. The gradual ramp up to the
approved production rate of 40,000 bopd would help the company in
achieving the target production rate of 1,75,000 bopd from Rajasthan
towards the end of FY12. We estimate gross production from the
Rajasthan field at 1,32,584 boepd and 1,82,493 boepd in FY12E and
FY13E, respectively. The company gave a gross capex guidance of
$1-1.25 billion for FY13 and remains confident on the current envisaged
Rajasthan basin potential of 2,40,000 boepd. We have maintained a HOLD
rating with a price target of | 350.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
Cairn’s gross production declined 3.3% YoY to 1,69,579 boepd and
net production declined 1.3% YoY to 98,969 boepd in Q3FY12. The
oil production from the Mangala field stood at 1,25,122 boepd in
Q3FY12. The net production from Ravva and Cambay stood at 8,228
boepd and 3,156 boepd, respectively in Q3FY12.
V a l u a t i o n
We have valued Cairn India on the basis of the SOTP methodology, using
DCF for Cairn’s producing assets and EV/bbl of US$12.5 for other
exploratory blocks. We estimate Cairn’s fair value at | 350 per share (MBA
fields at | 243 per share, | 3 per share for Ravva field, | 2 per share for
Cambay field and other exploratory upside at | 38 per share). We
recommend a HOLD rating on the stock and have assigned a price target
of | 350 per share
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
P o s i t i v e s f a c t o r e d i n , s t o c k f a i r l y v a l u e d …
Cairn India reported its Q3FY12 results with revenues remaining flat YoY
at | 3096.8 crore and PAT growing by 12.5% YoY to | 2261.9 crore in
Q3FY12. The growth in PAT on a YoY basis is mainly attributable to forex
gain of | 301.5 crore (nil in Q2FY12) and other income of | 112.4 crore (
| 34.2 crore in Q2FY12). The average crude oil realisation increased from
US$75.9 per barrel in Q3FY11 to US$101 per barrel in Q3FY12 due to
higher crude oil prices. Cairn has commenced production from the
Bhagyam field in the current quarter. The gradual ramp up to the
approved production rate of 40,000 bopd would help the company in
achieving the target production rate of 1,75,000 bopd from Rajasthan
towards the end of FY12. We estimate gross production from the
Rajasthan field at 1,32,584 boepd and 1,82,493 boepd in FY12E and
FY13E, respectively. The company gave a gross capex guidance of
$1-1.25 billion for FY13 and remains confident on the current envisaged
Rajasthan basin potential of 2,40,000 boepd. We have maintained a HOLD
rating with a price target of | 350.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
Cairn’s gross production declined 3.3% YoY to 1,69,579 boepd and
net production declined 1.3% YoY to 98,969 boepd in Q3FY12. The
oil production from the Mangala field stood at 1,25,122 boepd in
Q3FY12. The net production from Ravva and Cambay stood at 8,228
boepd and 3,156 boepd, respectively in Q3FY12.
V a l u a t i o n
We have valued Cairn India on the basis of the SOTP methodology, using
DCF for Cairn’s producing assets and EV/bbl of US$12.5 for other
exploratory blocks. We estimate Cairn’s fair value at | 350 per share (MBA
fields at | 243 per share, | 3 per share for Ravva field, | 2 per share for
Cambay field and other exploratory upside at | 38 per share). We
recommend a HOLD rating on the stock and have assigned a price target
of | 350 per share
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