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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ACC_Q4CY11.pdf
T a x c r e d i t a d j u s t m e n t l i f t s p r o f i t a b i l i t y …
In Q4CY11, ACC reported net sales of | 2502 crore (up 28% YoY, ~16%
QoQ) and EBITDA margin of 15.6%, which were in line with our
respective estimates of | 2430.7 crore and 15.1%. However, the PAT of |
470 crore was above our estimate of | 207 crore primarily on account of
tax credit adjustment of | 228 crore. Sales volumes and realisations
increased during the quarter due to demand pick up post monsoons and
a hike in prices in anticipation of demand recovery. The EBITDA/tonne
has increased significantly to | 661/tonne (our estimate: | 624/tonne) due
to increased realisation. Going forward, we estimate EBITDA/tonne of |
775 in CY12E and | 840 in CY13E against | 722/tonne in CY11.
ƒ Cement volume up ~6% YoY, Realisation up ~21% YoY
Sales volumes increased ~6% YoY (~4% QoQ) to 5.9 MTPA in
Q4CY11 on account of a demand pick-up coupled with stabilisation
of new capacities added by the company at Chanda, Maharashtra
and Wadi, Karnataka. Realisations improved ~21% YoY (~12%
QoQ) to | 4251/tonne due to a hike in cement prices during the
quarter on account of better demand.
ƒ EBITDA/tonne up ~77% YoY to | 661/tonne on higher realisation
The EBITDA/tonne improved ~77% YoY (~71% QoQ) to
| 661/tonne due to higher realisation, which almost negated the
impact of a rise in total cost, which increased ~14% YoY (~6%
QoQ) to | 3590/tonne.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 1389, the stock is trading at 22.0x and 19.8x its CY12E
and CY13E earnings, respectively. The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of
11.6x and 9.7x CY12E and CY13E EBITDA, respectively. On an EV/tonne
basis, the stock is trading at $153 and $145 its CY12E and CY13E
capacities, respectively. We have valued the stock at $140/tonne at CY13E
capacity of 30.5 MTPA, which is in line with the current replacement cost.
We have revised our target price to | 1337/share with a HOLD rating on
the stock
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ACC_Q4CY11.pdf
T a x c r e d i t a d j u s t m e n t l i f t s p r o f i t a b i l i t y …
In Q4CY11, ACC reported net sales of | 2502 crore (up 28% YoY, ~16%
QoQ) and EBITDA margin of 15.6%, which were in line with our
respective estimates of | 2430.7 crore and 15.1%. However, the PAT of |
470 crore was above our estimate of | 207 crore primarily on account of
tax credit adjustment of | 228 crore. Sales volumes and realisations
increased during the quarter due to demand pick up post monsoons and
a hike in prices in anticipation of demand recovery. The EBITDA/tonne
has increased significantly to | 661/tonne (our estimate: | 624/tonne) due
to increased realisation. Going forward, we estimate EBITDA/tonne of |
775 in CY12E and | 840 in CY13E against | 722/tonne in CY11.
ƒ Cement volume up ~6% YoY, Realisation up ~21% YoY
Sales volumes increased ~6% YoY (~4% QoQ) to 5.9 MTPA in
Q4CY11 on account of a demand pick-up coupled with stabilisation
of new capacities added by the company at Chanda, Maharashtra
and Wadi, Karnataka. Realisations improved ~21% YoY (~12%
QoQ) to | 4251/tonne due to a hike in cement prices during the
quarter on account of better demand.
ƒ EBITDA/tonne up ~77% YoY to | 661/tonne on higher realisation
The EBITDA/tonne improved ~77% YoY (~71% QoQ) to
| 661/tonne due to higher realisation, which almost negated the
impact of a rise in total cost, which increased ~14% YoY (~6%
QoQ) to | 3590/tonne.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 1389, the stock is trading at 22.0x and 19.8x its CY12E
and CY13E earnings, respectively. The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of
11.6x and 9.7x CY12E and CY13E EBITDA, respectively. On an EV/tonne
basis, the stock is trading at $153 and $145 its CY12E and CY13E
capacities, respectively. We have valued the stock at $140/tonne at CY13E
capacity of 30.5 MTPA, which is in line with the current replacement cost.
We have revised our target price to | 1337/share with a HOLD rating on
the stock
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