10 February 2012

Buy PVR; Target : Rs 157 ::ICICI Securities

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B e t t e r   t h a n   e x p e c t e d …
PVR reported its Q3FY12 numbers, which were better than our
expectations. The topline for the company stood at | 139.0 crore against
our expectation of | 134.2 crore, growing 4.0% YoY driven by a good
quality of content and higher footfalls. EBITDA for the quarter stood at |
24.0 crore against our expectation of | 20.7 crore, growing 11.0% YoY.
The EBITDA margin stood at 17.3%, improving 110 bps YoY but staying
more or less flat QoQ. PAT for the quarter stood at | 9.0 crore against our
expectation of | 6.1 crore, improving from a loss of | 4.8 crore in Q3FY11.

Highlights of the quarter
The quarter was marked by better quality of content as compared to
Q3FY11 resulting in higher footfalls but at lower ATPs. The occupancy
levels increased in the quarter YoY. While the footfalls increased from 5.2
million to 6.6 million, growing by 28%, the ATP decreased from | 167 to
| 155 from Q3FY11 to Q3FY12. Exhibition revenues grew 22.0% YoY to
| 125.8 crore as compared to | 103.2 crore in Q3FY11.
V a l u a t i o n
The quarter was marked by higher footfalls but at lower ATPs. With a
good movie pipeline, we expect footfalls to increase further. Also, we
expect the aggressive expansion plans of PVR to drive revenue growth in
the subsequent quarters. We expect 11.0% revenue CAGR over FY11-13E
(due to the absence of revenue from movie production, going forward,
which contributed ~ | 70 crore in FY11) and PAT CAGR of 128.1% over
the same period. At the CMP of | 139, the stock is trading at 9.8x FY12E
EPS of | 14.4 and 8.9x FY13E EPS of | 15.7. We have valued the stock at
10x FY13E and arrived at a target price of | 157, implying an upside of
13%. We have upgraded the stock from HOLD to BUY.

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