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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_HPCL_Q3FY12.pdf
B a c k i n t h e b l a c k … .
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) declared its Q3FY12 results with
revenues at | 48047.5 crore, EBITDA at | 3702.6 crore and PAT at
| 2725.2 crore. The results were above our estimates mainly on account
of additional budgetary support from the government (total
compensation of | 45000 crore for 9MFY12) and higher upstream share at
47.1% of gross under-recoveries. HPCL had a net over recovery of
| 2805.7 crore during Q3FY12. We expect gross under-recoveries at
~| 1,39,534 crore and ~| 1,28,672 crore in FY12E and FY13E,
respectively. We believe the government will make sure that the OMCs
report profits for FY12E. Hence, we have assumed net under-recoveries
for downstream companies at 6% in FY12E. We estimate HPCL will report
EPS of | 12.9 and | 38.7 in FY12E and FY13E, respectively. We
recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a price target of | 368.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput remained flat on a YoY basis at 4.1 MMT
whereas total sales increased 5.6% YoY and 8.7% QoQ to 7.5 MMT.
The gross refining margins (GRMs) at US$ 4.8 per barrel in Q3FY12
were higher than our estimate of US$4.0 per barrel on account of
inventory gain. Interest costs grew 188.9% on a YoY basis due to a
delay in government compensation towards under-recovery, which
led to an increase in working capital loans.
V a l u a t i o n
HPCL is trading at 22.3x FY12E and 7.5x FY13E EPS of | 12.9 and | 38.7,
respectively. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a price target
of | 368 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 333 per share
and P/E multiple: | 403 per share).
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_HPCL_Q3FY12.pdf
B a c k i n t h e b l a c k … .
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) declared its Q3FY12 results with
revenues at | 48047.5 crore, EBITDA at | 3702.6 crore and PAT at
| 2725.2 crore. The results were above our estimates mainly on account
of additional budgetary support from the government (total
compensation of | 45000 crore for 9MFY12) and higher upstream share at
47.1% of gross under-recoveries. HPCL had a net over recovery of
| 2805.7 crore during Q3FY12. We expect gross under-recoveries at
~| 1,39,534 crore and ~| 1,28,672 crore in FY12E and FY13E,
respectively. We believe the government will make sure that the OMCs
report profits for FY12E. Hence, we have assumed net under-recoveries
for downstream companies at 6% in FY12E. We estimate HPCL will report
EPS of | 12.9 and | 38.7 in FY12E and FY13E, respectively. We
recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a price target of | 368.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
The crude oil throughput remained flat on a YoY basis at 4.1 MMT
whereas total sales increased 5.6% YoY and 8.7% QoQ to 7.5 MMT.
The gross refining margins (GRMs) at US$ 4.8 per barrel in Q3FY12
were higher than our estimate of US$4.0 per barrel on account of
inventory gain. Interest costs grew 188.9% on a YoY basis due to a
delay in government compensation towards under-recovery, which
led to an increase in working capital loans.
V a l u a t i o n
HPCL is trading at 22.3x FY12E and 7.5x FY13E EPS of | 12.9 and | 38.7,
respectively. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a price target
of | 368 (valuation based on average of P/BV multiple: | 333 per share
and P/E multiple: | 403 per share).
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