01 January 2012

Tata Motors :UBS India – Least Preferred Stock Ideas for 2012


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Tata Motors
Investment case: We remain negative on the domestic MHCV growth outlook
given weak industrial growth. In addition, Tata Motors continues to invest in
promotional and dealer support and expansion activities, mainly in its passenger
vehicle business. We therefore expect domestic margins to remain under
pressure. We see limited upside risk to JLR volume growth given the
challenging global macro environment. Volume growth ex-Evoque has
continued to slow. We continue to view the risk-reward profile as unfavourable.


Valuation: We have a Sell rating. We value the domestic business (and other
subsidiaries) at 8x FY13E EV/EBITDA and JLR at 3x FY13E EV/EBITDA. We
adjust our EBITDA for R&D capitalisation.
2012 Catalysts: IIP growth could continue to disappoint in the near term, acting
as a negative catalyst for MHCV growth. Strong Evoque sales could act as a
positive catalyst in early 2012.



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UBS India – Outlook 2012 ::Most & Least Preferred Stock Ideas for 2012

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