Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Power
Capacity addition gathers pace of coverage universe
In YTD FY12 (April-November 2011), aggregate incremental capacity
addition was 10370 MW (9309 MW in April- November 2010). Our
coverage universe has added 660 MW during this quarter. The installed
capacity currently stands at 1,85,496 MW. Average base deficit during
April September 2011 was 7.2% (decline of 154 bps YoY) while average
peak deficit was 9.9% (decline of 100 bps YoY)
Fuel shortages – a key head wind for newly commissioned IPPs
Tepid production growth by Coal India and declining gas output from
Reliance (KGD6 basin) has resulted in fuel shortages leading to newly
commissioned power capacities operating at 30-50% PLFs. No. of
power plants having coal stock less than 7 days have risen to 48 –
highest in 22 months as on November 2011.
International coal price down , rupee depreciation plays spoilsport
During Q3 FY12, international spot thermal coal prices (6700 kcal)
decline by 5.5% on QoQ basis. However, rupee depreciation of 11.1%
during the quarter negated this fall making thermal coal expensive.
Merchant rates for the quarter remained at | 4.5/ kwhr (IEX).
Tariff hikes continue; distribution reforms underway execution the key
In FY12 fifteen SEBs have proposed or hiked tariffs between 1% and
40%. During the quarter, Shunglu committee came out with a set of
recommendations which included 1) Formation of SPV with a line of
credit from RBI to buy distress loans of discoms 2) Improvement in SEB
financials through tariff hikes and reduction in AT & C losses. However
execution of these measures is crucial which we believe can take 18 –
24 months.
PAT, EBITDA to increase YoY, but decline on QoQ basis
From our coverage universe, we expect EBITDA margins to decline QoQ
and on YoY basis (due to higher raw material costs and lower PLFs due
to recently commissioned capacity). Higher depreciation & interest cost
of newly commissioned projects would lead PAT margin contraction of
325 bps on YoY.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Power
Capacity addition gathers pace of coverage universe
In YTD FY12 (April-November 2011), aggregate incremental capacity
addition was 10370 MW (9309 MW in April- November 2010). Our
coverage universe has added 660 MW during this quarter. The installed
capacity currently stands at 1,85,496 MW. Average base deficit during
April September 2011 was 7.2% (decline of 154 bps YoY) while average
peak deficit was 9.9% (decline of 100 bps YoY)
Fuel shortages – a key head wind for newly commissioned IPPs
Tepid production growth by Coal India and declining gas output from
Reliance (KGD6 basin) has resulted in fuel shortages leading to newly
commissioned power capacities operating at 30-50% PLFs. No. of
power plants having coal stock less than 7 days have risen to 48 –
highest in 22 months as on November 2011.
International coal price down , rupee depreciation plays spoilsport
During Q3 FY12, international spot thermal coal prices (6700 kcal)
decline by 5.5% on QoQ basis. However, rupee depreciation of 11.1%
during the quarter negated this fall making thermal coal expensive.
Merchant rates for the quarter remained at | 4.5/ kwhr (IEX).
Tariff hikes continue; distribution reforms underway execution the key
In FY12 fifteen SEBs have proposed or hiked tariffs between 1% and
40%. During the quarter, Shunglu committee came out with a set of
recommendations which included 1) Formation of SPV with a line of
credit from RBI to buy distress loans of discoms 2) Improvement in SEB
financials through tariff hikes and reduction in AT & C losses. However
execution of these measures is crucial which we believe can take 18 –
24 months.
PAT, EBITDA to increase YoY, but decline on QoQ basis
From our coverage universe, we expect EBITDA margins to decline QoQ
and on YoY basis (due to higher raw material costs and lower PLFs due
to recently commissioned capacity). Higher depreciation & interest cost
of newly commissioned projects would lead PAT margin contraction of
325 bps on YoY.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
NTPC We expect NTPC to sell 53 BU in Q3FY12, an increase of 3.1% YoY (due to
commercialisation of 1660 MW) and 10.9% QoQ (Higher PLFs of coal and gas
based plants) . We expect realisation to be ~ | 2.91 per unit. In Q3FY12, the
company has commissioned Unit 2 - 660 MW in Sipat.
NHPC We expect NHPC to sell ~2800 MUs in Q3FY12. We expect per unit realisation to
be | 2.17 per unit (same as Q3FY11). We expect topline and PAT to decline 11%
and 15 % on YoY basis mainly due to fall in generation by 11%. No capacity has
been commissioned in this quarter.
Neyveli Lignite The company is expected to report YoY topline and bottomline growth of 22% and
120% respectively mainly due to incessant rains affecting the company in Q3 FY11.
The company is expected to sell ~4060 MUs, up 11% YoY. No capacity additions
this quarter. We have built in a realisation rate of | 2.62/unit.
JP Hydro We have built in sales of ~1032 MUs in Q3FY12. We expect average realisation of
| 2.8 per unit. We expect revenue and EBITDA growth of 87% YoY and PAT de
growth of 77% YoY mainly on account of higher depreciation and interest cost due
to commissioning of Karcham Wangtoo (1000 MW).
PTC India We expect PTC to report trading volumes of 6510 MUs for Q3FY12, implying a 11%
YoY growth. The trading margins are also expected to be at 4.6 paisa/unit in
Q3FY12E. Due to tepid volume growth and interest outgo (Working capital loans on
receivables), we expect PAT to decline by 29% YoY to | 25 crore.
Lanco Infratech
**
The company has sold ~ 2958 MUs. We expect average realisation to be |
3.9/kwhr (increase of 27% YoY). We expect revenue growth of 40% mainly due to
improved numbers in power segment in addition to Griffin coal numbers. We
expect EBITDA and PAT to decline by 4% (higher coal costs) and 76% (lower
depreciation in Q3 FY11), respectively.
Tata Power *** We expect sales growth of 48% and EBITDA growth of 31%(led by higher coal
realisation). However we expect a bottomline degrowth of 26% on account of
Interest, depreciation and tax expenses (40%). We expect coal realisation at
$90/tonne in Bumi resources with volume of 16 MT.
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
**One offs like higher inter segment elimination; other income and forex loss reversal may impact PAT growth
*** The profits of Tata Power company could be higher than estimates if the company reverses forex loss of | 619 crore
(hit taken in Q2 FY12 for Mundra UMPP
No comments:
Post a Comment