03 January 2012

Oil and Gas - Light products lead GRM revival; Light-Heavy holds key; :: Edelweiss

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Brent crude prices were down 2% MoM in December on strong supplies, averaging USD108.9/bbl. The INR depreciated further 3.4%, on widening trade deficit and stubborn inflation. Indian complex GRMs rose to USD10.6/bbl led by recovery in light product cracks. Gasoline and naphtha spreads recovered sharply from unsustainably low levels. In marketing, diesel/kerosene under-recoveries spiked 17% and 10% MoM, respectively, due to INR depreciation while gasoline registered marginal over recovery of INR0.04/lt. Top Picks: ONGC, PLNG, BPCL.

Some major company events during the month:
ü  Following completion of Vedanta-Cairn deal, the former has nominated three directors on Cairn India’s board, including Mr. Navin Agrawal as the Chairman.
ü  RIL gas production has fallen to 38.66 mmscmd. GoI has ordered cuts in supply to power and fertilizer plants, especially to those that do not sell at regulated prices.
ü  IGL has increased Delhi CNG price by INR1.75/kg (5.5%), taking total CY11 hike to INR6/kg. New CNG price in Delhi is INR33.75/kg. 
ü  GAIL has agreed to buy 3.5 mtpa of LNG a year from Cheniere Energy Partners for 20 years, starting 2017. The LNG price will be linked to Henry Hub prices.

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