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US: Growth rate to accelerate to some extent compared to earlier four quarters
In the US, we expect the y-y growth rate to accelerate to 21%. The prescription trend as
reported by IMS indicate volume growth in the range of 10-15% currently, compared with
>40% growth recorded earlier.
Key launches/approvals during the quarter include Femcon Fe, Keppra Oral Solution and
LoSeasonique (June 2011). The competition in Tramadol and Keppra XR are relatively
low; however, we expect contribution in the quarter to be limited.
The price decline in Lotrel has been a drag on the overall growth rate. For instance, in
2QFY12, management indicated that US generic business growth was at 14%, but
excluding the impact of price decline in Lotrel growth would have been at 30%. Lotrel
had started to see additional competition and price decline since 3QFY11. Therefore, we
believe the adverse base will start to ease to an extent from this quarter.
India growth to benefit from chronic segment and addition of Eli Lilly’s Insulin
franchise
We expect Lupin to record 23% growth in India. Excluding the INR270mn contribution
from Insulin sales during the quarter, we project growth at 16%. Overall net sales growth
is projected at 15%. Lupin is likely to consolidate I'Rom financials for ~15 days during the
quarter.
Marginal improvement in EBITDA margins q-q built in
Over the last seven quarters, EBITDA has been in the narrow range of INR2.9-3.1bn (ex
licensing income). We expect EBITDA to be marginally higher than this historical range
at INR 3.2bn. We project EBITDA margin at 17.2%, compared to 16.7% (ex-licensing
income) recorded in 2QFY12 and 17.2% in 3QFY11.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
US: Growth rate to accelerate to some extent compared to earlier four quarters
In the US, we expect the y-y growth rate to accelerate to 21%. The prescription trend as
reported by IMS indicate volume growth in the range of 10-15% currently, compared with
>40% growth recorded earlier.
Key launches/approvals during the quarter include Femcon Fe, Keppra Oral Solution and
LoSeasonique (June 2011). The competition in Tramadol and Keppra XR are relatively
low; however, we expect contribution in the quarter to be limited.
The price decline in Lotrel has been a drag on the overall growth rate. For instance, in
2QFY12, management indicated that US generic business growth was at 14%, but
excluding the impact of price decline in Lotrel growth would have been at 30%. Lotrel
had started to see additional competition and price decline since 3QFY11. Therefore, we
believe the adverse base will start to ease to an extent from this quarter.
India growth to benefit from chronic segment and addition of Eli Lilly’s Insulin
franchise
We expect Lupin to record 23% growth in India. Excluding the INR270mn contribution
from Insulin sales during the quarter, we project growth at 16%. Overall net sales growth
is projected at 15%. Lupin is likely to consolidate I'Rom financials for ~15 days during the
quarter.
Marginal improvement in EBITDA margins q-q built in
Over the last seven quarters, EBITDA has been in the narrow range of INR2.9-3.1bn (ex
licensing income). We expect EBITDA to be marginally higher than this historical range
at INR 3.2bn. We project EBITDA margin at 17.2%, compared to 16.7% (ex-licensing
income) recorded in 2QFY12 and 17.2% in 3QFY11.
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