20 January 2012

Hospitals 􀂃 ICICI Securities 3QFY12 preview

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Hospitals
􀂃 Revenues to grow 37% YoY
We expect Hospital sales under I-Direct coverage to grow by 37% YoY
to ~|1332 crore on account of strong growth by Fortis. Excluding Super
Religare Labs revenues, the base business is expected to grow by 23%
YoY. Overall, we expect average revenue per occupied bed to go up by
8.8% YoY.
􀂃 EBITDA margins to decline 20 bps YoY
EBITDA margins are likely to decline 20 bps to 15.1% on the back of
new bed addition at Fortis Healthcare. EBITDA margins of Apollo
Hospital are likely to increase by 30 bps to 16% while for Fortis
Healthcare it may decline by 50 bps to 14% YoY. Overall EBITDA is
expected to increase by 35% to ~|201 crore.
􀂃 Net Profit to decline by ~15% YoY
Net Profit of our coverage is expected to decline by 15% to | 68.3 crore
on the back of sharp decline in profits of Fortis Healthcare. We expect
Fortis’ profits to decline by 54% YoY due to increase in interest and
depreciation. Apollo Hospitals is expected to report net profit growth of
14% YoY.
Exhibit 21: Company specific view
Company Remarks
Apollo Hospitals Revenues are expected to grow 18.6% YoY driven by 16% growth in hospital
segment and 25% growth in Pharmacy segment. EBITDA margins are expected to
increase by 30 bps YoY with increase in the realisation by 4%. We expect Hospital
and Pharmacy segments to clock EBIT margins of 18% and 0.8%, respectively.
Fortis
Healthcare
We expect Fortis' revenues to grow ~67% YoY on the back of incremental
revenues from Super Religare Labs and newly added beds. Operating margins to
decline 50 bps YoY due to new bed additions. We expect profit of | 16 crore
without considering write back of MTM losses booked in Q2FY12 or MTM losses in
Q3FY12.
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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