29 January 2012

Buy Sterlite Industries; Target : Rs 125 ::ICICI Securities

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A l u m i n i u m   d e n  t s   o v e r a l l   c on s i s t e n t   p e r f o r m a n c e …
Sterlite Industries’ (SIL) Q3FY12 results were below our expectations,
primarily on the back of a muted performance from aluminium
businesses. The bottomline during the quarter under review stood at |
913.5 crore, which was lower then our estimate of | 1065.8 crore. The
topline came at | 10246.2 crore (our estimate: | 9423.3 crore), which was
23.5% higher YoY and 1.1% higher QoQ. However, on the back of higher
input costs, the EBITDA margin declined by 130 bps YoY and 190 bps
QoQ to 22.6% (our estimate: 24.1%). The subsequent EBITDA stood at |
2318.3 crore (our estimate: | 2269.1 crore), which was 17.2% higher YoY
but 6.6% lower QoQ. The ensuing reported PAT stood at | 913.5 crore
(our estimate: | 1065.8 crore), which was 17% lower YoY and 8.4% lower
QoQ. The reported PAT during the quarter under review was dented by
foreign currency losses. Due to depreciation of the INR, the net impact of
foreign currency exchange fluctuations during the quarter resulted in a
loss of | 425.39 crore.
Subdued performance by Balco and VAL
The subdued performance of the aluminium and power businesses
during Q3FY12 impacted the overall performance of SIL. In the aluminium
business, during the quarter under review, Balco reported a loss to the
tune of | 17 crore while SIL’s share in Vedanta Aluminium’s (VAL) loss
was to the tune of | 264 crore. The subdued performance was due to a
rise in the cost of production.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 111, the stock is trading at FY13E PE of 6.2x on a
consolidated basis.  We expect the company to register growth of 21%,
9% and 10% CAGR in topline, EBITDA and bottomline, respectively,
during FY11-FY13E. We have a cautiously positive stance on the stock.
We have valued it on an SOTP basis and arrived at a target price of | 125
assigning a BUY rating.

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