29 January 2012

Buy IRB Infrastructure; Target : Rs 189 ::ICICI Securities

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Results ahead of estimates…
IRB Infrastructure’s Q3FY12 performance was ahead of our estimates on
account of a better-than-expected performance in the construction
division, lower-than-expected depreciation at the Surat Dahisar project
(the depreciation was considered for 15 days in Q3FY12) and lower-thanexpected effective tax rate. In the construction division, IRB reported net
revenues at ~| 500 crore (jump of 9.2% YoY) with healthy EBITDA
margin of ~24% despite completion of the Surat Dahisar and Kolhapur
IRDP projects. During the quarter, the Panaji Goa Project was terminated
due to NHAI’s inability to acquire land. IRB is in the process of claiming
compensation from NHAI towards  cancellation. We maintain our BUY
rating with an SOTP price target of | 189/share.
ƒ Strong Q3FY12 results led by construction division
IRB reported net revenues at ~|  500 crore (jump of 9.2% YoY) with
healthy EBITDA margin of ~24%  in the construction division despite the
completion of the Surat Dahisar & Kolhapur IRDP projects. Additionally,
lower depreciation (| 72.4 crore vs. our estimates of | 102.9 crore) with
only 15 days depreciation for Surat Dahisar project and lower tax rate
(18% vs. our estimates of 25%) led to a better performance in Q3FY12.
ƒ Toll revenues grow 5.6% sequentially
IRB’s gross toll revenues grew 5.6% sequentially to | 322 crore. The
Surat Dahisar project witnessed 13.2% sequential growth to | 106.3
crore. However, we highlight that the implied traffic growth rate for two
out of three key projects has been muted in Q3FY12.
ƒ Panaji Goa project terminated by NHAI
In Q3FY12, the Panaji Goa Project was terminated due to NHAI’s inability
to resolve land acquisition matters,  clearance of forest & environment
department and dispute on toll rates with the Goa government. IRB is in
the process of claiming compensation from NHAI towards cancellation
(IRB is liable for compensation of ~150% of equity invested).
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 168, IRB is trading at 12.1x FY13E EPS and 1.7x FY13E
P/BV. With a strong project portfolio & robust order book, we maintain
BUY with an SOTP price target of | 189/share (BOT project - | 120/share,
construction - | 64/share & investment in real estate at | 5/share).

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