29 January 2012

Buy HT Media; Target : Rs 147 ::ICICI Securities

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A f f e c t e d   b y   s l o w i n g   e c o n o  m y ;   a s   e x p e c t e d …
HT Media reported its Q3FY12 numbers, which were in line with our
expectations on the topline and bottomline front. The topline for the
quarter stood at | 526.6 crore vs. our estimate of | 516.8 crore, growing
13.2% YoY led by ad revenue growth of 10.1% to | 407.3 crore. EBITDA
for the quarter stood at | 77.7 crore vs. our estimate of | 95.0 crore,
marred by a forex loss of | 10 crore and a provision of | 7.5 crore for
diminution in value of investments relating to partnership for growth
business. The EBITDA margin stood at 14.8%, down 424 bps YoY but up
31 bps QoQ. PAT for the quarter stood at | 48.2 crore vs. our estimate of
| 46.0 crore.

Highlights of the quarter
English ad revenues grew 10.7% to  | 296.6 crore, which included 18%
growth shown by ‘Mint’. Hindi ad revenues posted a modest growth of
8.4% to | 102.4 crore as Hindi ad revenue for Q3FY11 included a one-time
revenue from Bihar elections. The radio segment reported a marginal
decline YoY in the revenue to | 17.4 crore. HT Burda reported an increase
in revenue from | 14.9 crore to | 22.6 crore while reducing EBITDA losses
from | 4.9 crore to | 1.7 crore. The overall EBITDA margin, however,
contracted by 424 bps to 14.8% as the company endured forex losses of
| 10 crore and a provision related to ‘partnership for growth’ business of |
7.5 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
Due to continuous pressure on ad growth and menacing newsprint
prices, we have reduced our EPS estimates for HT Media from | 10.2 to |
9.8 for FY13. At the CMP of | 125, HT Media is trading at 15.6x FY12 EPS
and 12.8x FY13 EPS. We have valued the stock at 15x FY13 EPS to arrive
at a target price of | 147 implying an upside potential of 17%. We
maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

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