20 January 2012

AUTOMOBILE SECTOR RESULT PREVIEW:: Pinc

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Moving With Speed Breakers
The bells and whistles associated with the festive season were missing
this year leading to below expectation volumes for the Indian
Automobile Industry during the quarter. Market leader Maruti Suzuki
had repeated labour trouble at its Manesar facility. With the unrest
spreading to its associate Suzuki Powertrain, which supplies diesel
engines, the company had to curtail dispatches of the new Swift thus
further elongating the waitlist. Mahindra & Mahindra on the other
hand had a successful launch of the much awaited XUV500.
Incremental volumes from the XUV500 and Maxximmo minivan helped
the company post a 30% growth in the automotive segment. Ashok
Leyland volumes received a boost with a launch of the LCV ‘Dost’ in
collaboration with Nissan. The two wheeler manufacturers sans Hero
MotoCorp showed signs of fatigue in volumes. Both Bajaj Auto and
TVS Motor posted a sequential decline in volumes. The depreciating
Indian currency came to Bajaj’s aid as the company derives one
third of its volumes from exports. Hero MotoCorp posted its highest
ever volumes during the quarter.
􀁺 Ashok Leyland (AL): Low base of last year and incremental volumes
from the LCV ‘Dost’ enabled the company post 26% volume growth. Expect
margins to contract 70bps QoQ on account of the dilutive effect of the LCV
launch.
􀁺 Bajaj Auto (BJAUT): The depreciating currency and price hikes
undertaken in both domestic and export markets to boost profitability.
Adjusted PAT expected to increase 17.2% YoY.
􀁺 Hero MotoCorp (HMCL): With a YoY growth of 11%, quarterly volumes
touched an all time high of 1.6mn units. Increase in profitability due to higher
operating leverage to aid in 27.7% growth in adjusted profits.
􀁺 Maruti Suzuki (MSIL): Volumes declined 27% as the company combated
a labour unrest and sluggish demand environment. PAT on a YoY basis to
halve to Rs2.7bn.
􀁺 Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M): A diesel vehicle portfolio and new launches
helped the company post a 30% growth in the automotive segment. Tractors
too posted a double digit growth. Adjusted PAT expected to grow 6.7% to
Rs6.6bn.
􀁺 TVS Motor (TVSL): Volumes slumped 12.3% QoQ due to lower off take
in domestic markets. Lower operating leverage to lead to 28% sequential
decline in net profit.

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