2012 Year ahead outlook from key brokerage houses • Reliance MF

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2012 Year ahead outlook from key brokerage houses
• Overall stance: Near term cautious but optimistic in the 2HCY12. 2012 may be much better year
than 2011.
• Real GDP growth (%yoy) – Overall muted growth expectations. Consensus expects below 7%
GDP growth in FY12 and around 7% GDP growth in FY13.
• Inflation – Worst of inflation worries are behind. As per consensus, FY13 inflation may be
significantly lower than FY12 inflation
• Policy Rates‐ Consensus expects policy easing to begin in 4QFY12. Rate cuts expectations
between 50 – 125 basis points by FY13.
• INR/USD: Consensus expects INR to gradually appreciate to below 50 levels by FY13 end.
• Corporate Earnings: Earnings expectations for FY13 are remarkably similar with most expecting
around 10% growth. (Consensus expectation for FY13 growth is now below 10%).
• Index targets: Consensus expects around 18000 levels for Sensex by Dec 2012.
• Sector preferences: Mixed preference but indicating adding cyclical tilt to the portfolios in the
2HCY12.