02 January 2012

2 Jan: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
On the final trading session of 2011 the bears ruled the roost as they took the index down by 0.47% but not before some extreme price action. Nifty opened marginally higher tracing the global markets and attempted to trade near the 4700 mark, however the resistance from the 21 hourly EMA avoided price gains and after couple of hours of sideways consolidation the bears took over to push the index down by 54 points from the day’s high. 2011 has been a forgettable year for the bulls as the benchmark index lost ~25% Nifty for the year and ended with four straight quarters of negative returns (the worst since 2008). For the week as well the index has resumed its down move after one weeks’ recovery and is facing the prospect of testing its previous lows. Trading volumes in the previous session were marginally higher and the market breadth was nearly flat. Going into the New Year, the trend remains firmly down on the medium-term charts as well as short-term charts with momentum oscillators rolling bearish pointing to a test of the recent lows. On sustenance below 4600, expect Nifty to drop down towards 4530 and possibly break the low for a target of 4400. Rallies to 4700 will face stiff resistance and the short-term outlook will turn bullish only on a close above 4756 (21 DEMA).

Sectoral indices ended the session with mixed performance. Among the top losers were Oil & Gas (-1.47%), Realty (-1.10%) and Banking (-0.73%) indices. On the gainers list were Healthcare (+0.45%) and IT (+0.37%) indices. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices outperformed their heavyweight peers with 0.31% and 0.09% gains respectively.

 Bullish Setups: DRRD, PIHC, SAIL
Bearish Setups: HCLT, LPC, RBXY, TTMT, AL

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