29 September 2011

R-Infra, Adani and Jaiprakash - A stark price-value mismatch ::JPMorgan

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 Why pay US$5B, 20x EV/EBITDA for a trading company with nascent
mine development business when you have the following (arguably
cheaper) options – (1) a large cement capacity of 35mtpa and established
hydropower construction business, at US$710MM, 10x EV/EBITDA, and
(2) a well-established power distribution business and nascent BOT project
portfolio, at US$540M, 5.3x EV/EBITDA. The price-value mismatch looks
extremely steep here, and the companies we are referring to are Adani
Enterprises (downgraded to UW, with a revised PT of Rs475),
Jaiprakash Associates (stay Neutral with an eye on potential catalysts,
with a revised PT of Rs76) and Reliance Infrastructure (upgraded to
OW, with a revised PT of Rs575) respectively.
 How do we get to the above values? We use residual value approach for
infrastructure conglomerates with significant listed subsidiaries. The
residual value is simply what remains after subtracting the value of the
parent’s stake in listed subs. The residual value is attributable to the unlisted
businesses lodged in the parent, net debt at parent, and holdco discount
(which is subjective).
 Why are markets currently differentiating so sharply among the three?
(1) Debt. Adani is levered 1.4:1, while JPA is 4:1 – leverage hurts badly
when borrowing costs are high and rising, and businesses are not doing well.
(2) Adani is generating cash, while JPA and RELI are not, at the consol.
level. (3) Group performance: Adani gets positive rub-off from strong port,
power execution. On the other hand, JPA’s cement profit is falling and
construction profit will be eliminated. For RELI, distribution businesses are
suffering due to inadequate tariff, BOT execution is weak and EPC risks
could be high. (4) Soft issues: JPA has an overhang of UP elections, while
RELI has suffered an ADAG-related overhang since the 2G scam. In the
recent past, Adani has been relatively unblemished, with the exception of
Lokayukta report. (5) Disclosures: JPA’s and RELI’s quarterly accounts are
not transparent on group investments and leverage, while ADE’s are.
 Catalysts for change: Macro: A reversal of the interest rate cycle would
benefit leveraged plays (+ JPA), while the less levered ones would hold less
charm (-ADE). Capex cycle pick-up would lead to a revival of cement
volume, prices (+JPA) Policy: Power distribution reforms (+RELI).
Company-specific: Speeding up BOT execution (+RELI); more
transparency (+RELI, JPA). While most of these catalysts are not yet visible,
we think the value differentiation is too sharp and a correction is due.



click on links for company reports:


Jaiprakash Associates : Leverage still a worry; maintain Neutral



Reliance Infrastructure: Getting into the value zone; upgrade to OW


Adani Enterprises :: Too much of a premium for execution; downgrade to Underweight


Adani Enterprises :: Too much of a premium for execution; downgrade to Underweight:: JPMorgan,

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ADE was the best performing conglomerate stock last year, outperforming the
index most of the time. But given the current valuation disparity between
ADE and peers, we think it makes sense to switch to RELI. We downgrade
ADE to UW, with a reduced PT of Rs475.
 ADE’s residual value1, at Rs240B, has seen a sharp rally since Adani
Power and Mundra Port became significant subs (circa Jan-10). We
think this is due to (1) the rub-off of strong execution of power and port
ventures, (2) it being a unique play on mine development and coal trading,
and (3) its relatively low leverage despite global acquisitions. Despite these
advantages, we think 20x FY12E EV/EBITDA is too much of a premium to
pay for a trading and MDO business, and we downgrade the stock to UW.
 What could change? (1) Potential return of risk appetite could reduce
investor preference for less-leveraged plays and cause a shift-back to the
names that are currently perceived as risky. (2) ADE enjoys the halo effect
from strong execution at power and port subs, but any slippage in its core
mining business execution could be a risk to this perception.
 Recent events and our take: (1) Karnataka Lokayukta report alleges illegal
gratification by Adani group but management has denied this and stated it
would take appropriate legal measures. (2) Change in Indonesian
government policy on coal export, mandating notified market prices for all
contracts. ADE exports coal to Adani Power at US$36/ton, below estimated
market price of US$60/ton. ADE is contractually obliged to supply coal at
the above price and might be liable to additional royalty / tax. In our base
case though, we have loaded the burden on Adani Power.
 Our new Mar-12 PT of Rs475 (down from Rs665 earlier) factors in our
recent sharp PT cut for Adani Power, and lower value attributed to trading
businesses and mining businesses. Our earnings estimate cuts of 10-20% for
FY12-14 are on account of Adani Power estimate cuts, MDO slippages and
lower trading margins assumed.



click below for Sector update
R-Infra, Adani and Jaiprakash - A stark price-value mismatch ::JPMorgan

Reliance Infrastructure: Getting into the value zone; upgrade to OW: JPMorgan,

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Execution slippages across businesses, ADAG overhang, and weak sentiment
for electricity distcoms has caused the stock to correct by 70% over the past
two years. At current valuations, we think the correction phase is drawing to
an end, and any improvement in above parameters could constitute stock
catalysts. We upgrade RELI to OW.
 RELI’s residual value1, at Rs27B, implying an EV/EBITDA of 5.3x
FY12 earnings, is at its lowest since RPWR became a significant sub
(circa Jan-08). We attribute this de-rating to 1) overhang on ADAG group
following the “2G scam”, 2) jitters at electricity distribution business
(Delhi, Mumbai) owing to unremunerative tariffs, receivables and
competition from TPWR, 3) execution slippages on infra BOTs and power
projects, impacting earnings, 3) non-transparency of RELI’s balance sheet /
investments on a quarterly basis, 4) potential margin risks for EPC business.
 We think the negatives are in the price, and upgrade RELI to OW with
a revised PT of Rs575 (down from Rs825 earlier): Catalysts include: 1)
power distribution reforms; 2) the ability to source cheaper power for
distribution businesses, once LT PPAs start kicking off (expected FY12); 3)
pick-up in RPWR project execution, a catalyst for the EPC business, which
appears to be in sight; and 4) better execution and profitability of infra
BOTs, which is also visible, in our view.
 Downside risks: (1) Continued use of RELI’s cash flows to fund group
plans. (2) Any earnings hit that EPC business might have to take in the
event of cost overruns for RPWR projects. (3) Continued execution delays
at infra BOTs.
 Our estimate cuts, at 40% for FY12/13/14 are steep, and arise from
execution delay at power and infra BOTs and lower-than-expected traffic.
We think the stock price decline so far already factors in these potential
cuts. Our new SOP-based PT of Rs575, following these earnings cuts, gets
half of its value from RPWR stake and includes 20% conglomerate discount.



click below for Sector update
R-Infra, Adani and Jaiprakash - A stark price-value mismatch ::JPMorgan

Jaiprakash Associates : Leverage still a worry; maintain Neutral::JPMorgan,

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The stock has been punished 60% since the peak, as a result of deteriorating
fundamentals across businesses and high leverage. While catalysts for an
outright OW still appear some time away, we think JPA could outperform its
listed subs and advocate a pair trade of Long JPA – Short JPVL.
 JPA’s residual value1, at Rs35B, implying an EV/EBITDA of 10x FY12
earnings, is at its lowest since JPIN and JPVL became significant subs
(circa Mid-10). We attribute this dip to 1) leverage and balance sheet strain
due to cement expansion and at non-contributing subs such as Sports City,
2) weak visibility for construction segment, as captive real-estate
construction is rising and third-party hydropower sales are falling, 3) less
clarity on value-unlocking for unlisted businesses, 4) political uncertainty,
given impending elections mid-next-year in the home-state of UP, and 5)
high risk of dilution of JPA’s stake in power sub JPVL.
 Potential catalysts for Long JPA – Short JPVL trade: The residual value
could expand if 1) cement strategic sale news flow gains traction, 2) cement
fundamentals improve, making the debt less burdensome, 3) construction
visibility improves, and 4) political clarity emerges. Risks to the trade: 1)
further upward pressure on the interest rate cycle; 2) line-up of more capex
plans beyond what is currently factored in; and 3) time factor of 8-10
months for political outcome at UP.
 Recent events – some positives and negatives: (1) Management denied
news reports (e.g. Business Standard) of a part-strategic sale of cement.
Partial sale (at the right valuation) could de-leverage the business and aid
valuation. (2) Cement volumes have pleasantly surprised over the past two
months, prompting us to raise our assumption of these for the year. (3) On
the other hand, JPA’s annual balance sheet shows that leverage has risen.
 PT reduced to Rs76: After cutting our standalone earnings estimates by
23% for FY12 (on weak real estate revenue recognition and construction),
we see a ray of hope for FY13, where we are upgrading estimates by 9% to
factor in higher cement volumes and bunched up real estate revenues. Our
new PT of Rs76 (down from Rs88) factors in the recent PT cut for JPIN by
our real estate team and assumes a 20% conglomerate discount.


click below for Sector update
R-Infra, Adani and Jaiprakash - A stark price-value mismatch ::JPMorgan

Copper How Low Can It Go?  Citi

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Copper
How Low Can It Go?
 In the short term – We expect copper to trade down to $7,000/tonne on a 0-3 month view, driven by a weakening global
economic outlook and financial uncertainty. We believe that a fundamental support for copper could emerge around $6,400/t;
this is based on the cost of production and a buy versus build analysis. Interestingly, on our calculations, this would be
consistent with Chinese GDP growth of around 5.6%. We have not adjusted our annual average forecasts, which remain at
the bottom end of consensus, but note that the current copper price of around $7,373/t implies downside risk to these
forecasts.
 Longer Term – We have completed a detailed analysis on the short- and medium-term outlook for copper. We have extended
out our supply and demand balance to 2020 and are forecasting a copper price of $7,077/t in 2015 and $7,266/t in 2020. Our
copper price forecasts are based on the next leg of demand drivers and our detailed analysis of all new potential mines over
the next ten years.
 The copper market conundrum – In this report we aim to address the short-, medium- and longer-term outlook for copper.
We have completed a snapshot of the top 22 mining projects and current mine supply. While in the short term we believe that
copper could trade lower due to macro uncertainty, in the longer term the copper market looks well supported by a structural
demand story and the difficulty of bringing on new supply.

India Mkt Recap - 29 Sept: Vishal N Dangaich

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* INDICES: Sensex 16,698(+252), Nifty 5,015(+69), CNXMCAP 7,118(+9).
* VOLUMES: NSE $2.68bn(13,121), BSE $0.46bn(2,260cr), F&O $46.60bn(2,27,880cr)
* AVERAGE 10 DAYS MKT VOL: NSE $2.22bn (10,869) BSE $0.53bn (2,598)
                          F&O $33.54bn(1,64,021).
* SECTORS: REALTY +0.36%  METAL +0.28%   BANKEX +1.46%   POWER  +0.99%
           AUTO +2.35%  CAP.GOODS -0.89% PHARMA -0.13%  IT +2.03%.
* ADV-DEC RATIO : BSE500 Index 230 Advances & 264 Declines.
* INDEX GAINERS : JPA +6%, TATA MOTORS, INFY, HDFC BANK, M&M, MARUTI, HLL &
                  ONGC +3%, ITC & HDFC +2%.
* INDEX LOSERS  : LT -2%, COAL IND, STER, SBI & SUNPHARMA -1%.

* TOP 5 VOLUMES : INFY, LT, RIL IND, SBI, HDFC & ICICI BANK.

* MAJOR BLOCKS  : 1) ICICI BANK         2,00,000 @  863.70,
                  2) LT                   85,083 @ 1351.45,
                  3) HDFC BANK          5,25,000 @  465.00,
                  4) LT                 1,00,000 @ 1370.25,
                  5) M&M                2,00,000 @  863.70.

* BSE500 GAINERS: CONCOR, JPA, HT MEDIA & BOMBAYU DYEING +6%, ENIL, INDIA CEM,
                  ALOK IND, KGN IND, TECHNO ELE & GAMMON IND +5%.
* BSE500 LOSERS : KFA & SUN TV -7%, SPICE JET -6%, JUBIKLANT FOOD, HATHWAY CAB
                  THERMAX, SHREE GLO TRA, PRRANETA IND, ROLTA & SIMPLEX INF -5%.
* FII INVESTMENT FROM 1st JAN 2011 to 27th  Sep 2011: $ -0.13bn.



-- 

Gold to Move 'Above $2,000 in Coming Months': UBS in CNBC

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Gold's recent sell-off belies its long term attractiveness and investors should avoid the panic and stay faithful to the precious metal, Dominic Schnider, Commodities expert at UBS Wealth Management told CNBC Thursday.

"The structural problems still remain and Greece is really going to call for higher prices and higher demand.

So we are looking at $2,000 and above in some of the months to come," Schnider said.

He dismissed notions that the gold bubble was close to bursting but cautioned that investors should expect more falls in the short term.

"In the short term you might see some further downside in the price but the demand side is still there," he said.

Gold has lost much of its sheen in recent days as part of a wider metals sell off and the strength of the US dollar in the face of stock market volatility over wider macro-economic woes.

An arrest in the rise of the metal saw a number of commentators claiming that the gold sell-off could see the price of the precious metal plummet to below the $1,500 level.

Marc Faber, author of the Gloom Boom, and Doom Report, told CNBC earlier this week that he would not be surprised if a 40 percent price correction occurred, causing gold to bottom out at $1,100 to $1,200.

Schnider added that gold would remain a safe haven because market volatility was so sharp but an increased desire by investors for liquidity could hamper its revival to the upside.

"If there is a liquidity crunch then even gold is going to have difficulty holding off and then cash is king. Gold is being driven weaker because of investors' desire for more liquidity," Schnider said.

Hampering another rally in gold prices is the strength of the dollar trade, but Schnider said demand for the dollar would be short term.

"It's all about the fear trade and risk aversion is shooting up and gold should be supportive on the one hand but if you seek liquidity it's all about the U.S. dollar. The dollar strength is just short term because the structural story remains unpleasant," Schneider said.

BSE, Bulk deals, 29/9/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
29/9/20115121618K Miles SoftwareTHAORLAL ATMARAM MODIS6871049.49
29/9/20115121618K Miles SoftwareSURANA GULAB CHAND PUKHRAJS3676147.74
29/9/2011522292CHANDNI TEAILISH TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS10000001.21
29/9/2011530427Choksi ImagingDIPAK KANAYALAL SHAHS2528631.90
29/9/2011533288Claris LifesciencesAXIS BANK LIMITEDS400000120.00
29/9/2011524506Coral LabSACHIN N DOSHIB3204572.51
29/9/2011524506Coral LabSHARAD H SHETHS2000072.52
29/9/2011531270Dazzel ConfNEETABEN RAJNIKAT MAHETAB8050053.40
29/9/2011531270Dazzel ConfHEENA KAUSHIK MEHTAB9000003.41
29/9/2011531270Dazzel ConfYOGESHKUMAR SURESHBHAI PARMARS11000003.37
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemMEENA SINGHALB10000012.35
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemSAGAR RAJESHBHAI JHAVERIB10340012.35
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemJITENDRA RAMNIKLAL MODYB10000012.35
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemSUNNY RASHMIKANT THAKKARS6050012.35
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemRAMESHBHAI RATILAL PATELS9450012.35
29/9/2011531695Dhvanil ChemAASHWINA CONSTRUCTION PRIVATE LIMITEDS12090012.35
29/9/2011524590Dinesh AllorgaHARSHAADBHAI HAJI SIRAJBHAI VAHORAB2200033.25
29/9/2011524590Dinesh AllorgaJAYABEN JITENDRAKUMAR MALVIYAS2260033.24
29/9/2011507528Eastern SugarINDO AUSTRO CORPORATION PVT LTDS7986717.04
29/9/2011533090EXCEL INFOJHAVERI TRADING AND INVESTMENT PVT LTDS20500012.00
29/9/2011507912LKP FINEVANS FRASER AND COMPANY (INDIA) LIMITEDB29881770.01
29/9/2011507912LKP FINKBS REALTORS PRIVATE LIMITEDS30000070.00
29/9/2011519279Madhur IndsNILESH VASANTBHAI PATELB3000064.43
29/9/2011519279Madhur IndsCHUDASAMA GAURANG GHANDHAMSINGHS2480666.09
29/9/2011590083MAVENS BIOSHASHKIRAN SUSHIL KADAMB5500003.59
29/9/2011511551Networth StockUSHA MAHENDRA SANGHVIB15127027.12
29/9/2011511551Networth StockRATNAMANI MARKETING PRIVATE LIMITEDS15127027.12
29/9/2011505525Parichay InvestSUNILBHAI VINUBHAI DANTANIB670017.50
29/9/2011505525Parichay InvestJANKI KAUMIL AMINB600017.50
29/9/2011505525Parichay InvestDESAI MAHESHS1650017.50
29/9/2011505525Parichay InvestBINAL TARANGKUMAR SHAHS1800017.50
29/9/2011521080Pasari SpinMUKESH BHANUSHALIB8716110.19
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROSHREE BHUVANAKARAM TRADINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDB137309346.90
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROINVENTURE FINANCE PVT LTDB109613318.09
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROQuadeye Securities Pvt LtdB181715338.24
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD.B92234348.64
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB268673351.24
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDB143058352.51
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTRONITIN BABAJI PALANDEB82495364.21
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTRONITIN BABAJI PALANDES82495335.44
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDS142958351.80
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROA K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS268673352.07
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROSHREE BHUVANAKARAM TRADINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDS112713341.60
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD.S92234349.42
29/9/2011533581PG ELECTROQuadeye Securities Pvt LtdS181123338.06
29/9/2011500346Punjab Comm-$LCGC CHROMATOGRAPHY SOLUTIONS PRIVATE LIMITEDB73000117.21
29/9/2011500357Rama PaperBLUE PEACOCK SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS40000103.10
29/9/2011500368Ruchi SoyaSOCIETE GENERALES1742000121.51
29/9/2011533470Rushil DecorPRAKASHBHAI ISHWARBHAI RANAS115000191.25
29/9/2011531886SCOPE INDMAHENDRA BHIKAJI CHILEB16500025.28
29/9/2011531886SCOPE INDSUNIL KUMAR HARIPRASAD PALS16500225.28
29/9/2011531886SCOPE INDMAHESH PRAKASH THIKS6200025.53
29/9/2011531886SCOPE INDNITIN SIDDAMSETTYS7002125.53
29/9/2011530883Super CropPALAR NUTANKUMAR SHETHB3000030.50
29/9/2011517534SV ElectricalsJIGAR PRAFUL GHOGHARIB10750015.40
29/9/2011517534SV ElectricalsKIRAN BHIKU BHANAESS10750015.40
29/9/2011526879UTLEND LEASE COMPANY INDIA LIMITEDB750009.83
29/9/2011526879UTPROGRESSIVE STAR FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDS750009.83
29/9/2011526441Vision TechMALLINATH MADINENIB1962826.31
29/9/2011533427VMS IndsVANMALA BAHADURLAL JAINB25000023.00
29/9/2011533427VMS IndsINDIRA SANJAY BAXIB25000023.00
29/9/2011533427VMS IndsMAN MOHAN DAMANIS30420023.00
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 29-Sep-2011

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
29-Sep-2011EDUCOMPEducomp Solutions LimitedCITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY5,27,779232.17-
29-Sep-2011GTLGTL LimitedDEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL9,57,55557.30-
29-Sep-2011GTLGTL LimitedGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDBUY5,18,33756.60-
29-Sep-2011GTLGTL LimitedGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDSELL5,18,33756.59-
29-Sep-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedVASANTI SHARE BROKERS LIMITEDBUY25,95,0259.84-
29-Sep-2011KSOILSK S Oils LimitedVASANTI SHARE BROKERS LIMITEDSELL25,93,7259.84-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,35,203347.33-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL1,50,857342.87-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDBUY3,33,543335.35-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdALFA FISCAL SERVICES PVT LTDSELL2,43,543337.33-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdBRIJESHWAR PATELBUY84,953348.01-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdBRIJESHWAR PATELSELL85,029348.11-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdCHAMPAKLAL NARSHIBHAI PUJARABUY2,69,025317.61-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdCHAMPAKLAL NARSHIBHAI PUJARASELL1,21,725324.99-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDBUY1,20,392348.63-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDSELL1,20,701349.02-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdINVENTURE FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,36,727337.20-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdINVENTURE FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL1,36,727310.66-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDBUY1,10,660344.35-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdMARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITEDSELL1,10,660344.74-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdNITIN BABAJI PALANDEBUY2,01,776331.82-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdNITIN BABAJI PALANDESELL2,01,776354.90-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdQUADEYE SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY1,08,817340.42-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdQUADEYE SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL1,08,817340.40-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdROSE VALLEY MERCHANDISE PVT. LTDBUY1,37,250346.31-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdROSE VALLEY MERCHANDISE PVT. LTDSELL1,37,250346.52-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdSHREE BHUVANAKARAM TRADINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY2,65,420333.08-
29-Sep-2011PGELPG Electroplast LtdSHREE BHUVANAKARAM TRADINVEST PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL2,46,624320.10-
29-Sep-2011RUSHILRushil Decor LimitedPRAKASHBHAI ISHWARBHAI RANABUY1,040185.95-
29-Sep-2011RUSHILRushil Decor LimitedPRAKASHBHAI ISHWARBHAI RANASELL1,01,040188.75-
29-Sep-2011SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdMERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. SVSELL14,95,10042.35-