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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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We recently attended a Long Term Evolution (LTE, a 4G wireless data
technology) event where representatives from the industry, including those
from COAI, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular, Nokia Siemens
Networks (NSN), Alcatel Lucent offered their views. Key messages: [1] The
data opportunity in India is undeniable [2] However, telcos flagged a series of
challenges [3] BWA in India is currently in the trial phase [4] TD-LTE
phones are not expected before H2 2012. We are cognizant of the threat that
LTE poses to the 3G data players but we also note that industry indications
are that we are 15-18 months away from availability of phones and probably
more so for devices are affordable price points. Nevertheless, we would be
encouraged to see Bharti acquire additional BWA spectrum potentially from
the Qualcomm JV, which includes spectrum in the Mumbai, Delhi circles.
• Opportunity well flagged…: Data subs are expected to increase to 160m by
2015 from 9-10m currently. Coupled with the lack of competition from fixed
broadband in India, the opportunity from wireless broadband is large.
• ...but watch the challenges: Representatives from the telcos and COAI
flagged the challenges faced by the telcos. Key challenges and views
highlighted were [1] spectrum scarcity – pricing may need to be a means to
rationalize this scarce resource [2] Content – need for local language content
with only 8% of India’s population being English speakers [3] Security –
balancing encryption needs for applications with requirements for legal
interception [4] Pricing/availability of handsets which are compliant with the
technology standards [5] active/passive infrastructure sharing [6] investment
in fibre backhaul which will need to be a private-public partnership.
Currently ~15-20% of the access is fibre even for tier 1 telcos.
• Status of LTE in India: Rollout of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA)
networks in India has not begun yet. NSN highlighted that trials were ongoing
with service readiness – integration, interoperability, backhaul – being
tested. BWA deployment can be expected at end-11/early-12.
• Devices: NSN expects TD-LTE dongles by Q3’11 and phones by Q3’12.
Samsung highlighted that by Q3'11 we can see 3G + LTE WiFi hotspots and
the Tab. Others flagged expected availability of phones by Q4’12.
• Interesting network solutions: Telcos highlighted the challenge of inbuilding
coverage at 2.3GHz (BWA) and even at 2.1Ghz (3G). With ~70%
of data traffic being indoors according to Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), the need
for indoor solutions is definitely high. Products like femtocell can help here
and also help to offload some traffic from the wireless network. ALU
highlighted its LightRadio "Cube" solution (an antenna, radio, amplifier etc
in a 6cm cube) which can reduce power consumption by 50% and is suitable
for both indoor and outdoor coverage.
• Nokia, Alcatel-Lucent, Qualcomm – JPM analyst Rod Hall. Samsung – JPM
analyst JJ Park.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
We recently attended a Long Term Evolution (LTE, a 4G wireless data
technology) event where representatives from the industry, including those
from COAI, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular, Nokia Siemens
Networks (NSN), Alcatel Lucent offered their views. Key messages: [1] The
data opportunity in India is undeniable [2] However, telcos flagged a series of
challenges [3] BWA in India is currently in the trial phase [4] TD-LTE
phones are not expected before H2 2012. We are cognizant of the threat that
LTE poses to the 3G data players but we also note that industry indications
are that we are 15-18 months away from availability of phones and probably
more so for devices are affordable price points. Nevertheless, we would be
encouraged to see Bharti acquire additional BWA spectrum potentially from
the Qualcomm JV, which includes spectrum in the Mumbai, Delhi circles.
• Opportunity well flagged…: Data subs are expected to increase to 160m by
2015 from 9-10m currently. Coupled with the lack of competition from fixed
broadband in India, the opportunity from wireless broadband is large.
• ...but watch the challenges: Representatives from the telcos and COAI
flagged the challenges faced by the telcos. Key challenges and views
highlighted were [1] spectrum scarcity – pricing may need to be a means to
rationalize this scarce resource [2] Content – need for local language content
with only 8% of India’s population being English speakers [3] Security –
balancing encryption needs for applications with requirements for legal
interception [4] Pricing/availability of handsets which are compliant with the
technology standards [5] active/passive infrastructure sharing [6] investment
in fibre backhaul which will need to be a private-public partnership.
Currently ~15-20% of the access is fibre even for tier 1 telcos.
• Status of LTE in India: Rollout of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA)
networks in India has not begun yet. NSN highlighted that trials were ongoing
with service readiness – integration, interoperability, backhaul – being
tested. BWA deployment can be expected at end-11/early-12.
• Devices: NSN expects TD-LTE dongles by Q3’11 and phones by Q3’12.
Samsung highlighted that by Q3'11 we can see 3G + LTE WiFi hotspots and
the Tab. Others flagged expected availability of phones by Q4’12.
• Interesting network solutions: Telcos highlighted the challenge of inbuilding
coverage at 2.3GHz (BWA) and even at 2.1Ghz (3G). With ~70%
of data traffic being indoors according to Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), the need
for indoor solutions is definitely high. Products like femtocell can help here
and also help to offload some traffic from the wireless network. ALU
highlighted its LightRadio "Cube" solution (an antenna, radio, amplifier etc
in a 6cm cube) which can reduce power consumption by 50% and is suitable
for both indoor and outdoor coverage.
• Nokia, Alcatel-Lucent, Qualcomm – JPM analyst Rod Hall. Samsung – JPM
analyst JJ Park.
