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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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Executive Summary
• We have entered sixth phase of the market cycle. In this phase, we have seen higher level
of capitulation , intense FII selling and significantly decline in volume in deliverable segment
which is generally operated by investors community. Our study reveals that market forms
bottom in ~ 14 months from previous peak and it rally 25% from the bottom ~ 3.-4 months.
• Economic cycle is likely to turn relatively favorable in next 6-12 months led by reversal of
monetary policy cycle, policy reform process speed up during Budget 2012, encouraging
macro data flow from US economy.
• Sectoral performance data suggest outperformance in defensive sectors such as FMCG,
Pharma is followed by outperformance high growth sector viz. Auto, Banks, capital goods. We
believe large global institutional investors would change their sectoral weights led by
improving operating environment and rotation trade possibility in global equity portfolio.
• Based on our market cycle findings, we are overweight on infrastructure, capital goods,
banks, auto and Housing and underweight on information technology, commodities, energy,
FMCG and Pharma.
KR Choksey’s Super 11 stocks for 2012
L&T, IRB Infra, Mundra Ports, IDFC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Indusind Bank, BHEL, Tata
Motors, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Ltd.
We are moving into cyclical gain in 2012
Where we are ……………. Moving to…………….
The Democratic Government has
become directionless
The government has acknowledged
its poor performance on reforms
front and overall governance in
closed way we may expect some
Inflation infuser
Capital Inflow window has tipped into
“crunch”
way, quick policy dose in next six months
through budget and hike in FDI in
some sectors
Currency crunch
India’s much valued entrepreneurial
energy has become more of a
Inflation moderation outlook
New Divestment strategy, corporate governance quagmire
Global
rotation trade possibility and flow of
capital through FDI route may result
into rupee appreciation
Spreading positive investment
sentiment
Sectoral overweight and underweight
Overweight
Rate sensitive theme : -> Pick up in Investment cycle ->
Infrastructure , Banks , Capital Goods, Cement and Infrastructure
proxies such as Infra NBFCs
Consumption theme : Auto, Housing
Underweight
Global linkage : Information Technology and Energy
Portfolio defensives : FMCG and Pharma
Top picks for 2012
Infrastructure – L&T, IRB Infra , Mundra Port & SEZ & IDFC
Banks – ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Indusind Bank
Capital goods – BHEL
Auto – Tata Motors, and Bajaj Auto
Housing – HDFC Ltd
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Executive Summary
• We have entered sixth phase of the market cycle. In this phase, we have seen higher level
of capitulation , intense FII selling and significantly decline in volume in deliverable segment
which is generally operated by investors community. Our study reveals that market forms
bottom in ~ 14 months from previous peak and it rally 25% from the bottom ~ 3.-4 months.
• Economic cycle is likely to turn relatively favorable in next 6-12 months led by reversal of
monetary policy cycle, policy reform process speed up during Budget 2012, encouraging
macro data flow from US economy.
• Sectoral performance data suggest outperformance in defensive sectors such as FMCG,
Pharma is followed by outperformance high growth sector viz. Auto, Banks, capital goods. We
believe large global institutional investors would change their sectoral weights led by
improving operating environment and rotation trade possibility in global equity portfolio.
• Based on our market cycle findings, we are overweight on infrastructure, capital goods,
banks, auto and Housing and underweight on information technology, commodities, energy,
FMCG and Pharma.
KR Choksey’s Super 11 stocks for 2012
L&T, IRB Infra, Mundra Ports, IDFC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Indusind Bank, BHEL, Tata
Motors, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Ltd.
We are moving into cyclical gain in 2012
Where we are ……………. Moving to…………….
The Democratic Government has
become directionless
The government has acknowledged
its poor performance on reforms
front and overall governance in
closed way we may expect some
Inflation infuser
Capital Inflow window has tipped into
“crunch”
way, quick policy dose in next six months
through budget and hike in FDI in
some sectors
Currency crunch
India’s much valued entrepreneurial
energy has become more of a
Inflation moderation outlook
New Divestment strategy, corporate governance quagmire
Global
rotation trade possibility and flow of
capital through FDI route may result
into rupee appreciation
Spreading positive investment
sentiment
Sectoral overweight and underweight
Overweight
Rate sensitive theme : -> Pick up in Investment cycle ->
Infrastructure , Banks , Capital Goods, Cement and Infrastructure
proxies such as Infra NBFCs
Consumption theme : Auto, Housing
Underweight
Global linkage : Information Technology and Energy
Portfolio defensives : FMCG and Pharma
Top picks for 2012
Infrastructure – L&T, IRB Infra , Mundra Port & SEZ & IDFC
Banks – ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Indusind Bank
Capital goods – BHEL
Auto – Tata Motors, and Bajaj Auto
Housing – HDFC Ltd
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