28 December 2011

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) : Dec 28

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty ended yesterday session lower by 28 points at 4750 after testing the crucial resistance of 4800. The day opened on a positive note and the index rallied towards 4800 in the first hour but profit taking / short-selling resulted in the index slipping lower down to the hourly 21 and 50 EMA support at 4745 and 4728 respectively. Hourly momentum oscillators have rolled bearish, whereas the daily readings continue to be bullish thus indicating a volatile and choppy market. Trading volumes are extremely low due to the year-end holiday lull and the market breadth dropped to close in favor of declines with an A/D ratio of 1:1.5. Expect markets to remain volatile in the run up to the December series derivatives settlement as well as the quarterly and year end NAV managements. As per our expectations the Nifty has seen rejection from 4800 levels and needs to sustain below 4720 for the bears to gain an upper hand. A drop below 4690 will consolidate the bearish stance even more. On the flipside, if the index manages to break past 4810, it has potential to stretch gains towards 4920 (bearish gap / falling trend line) area.

All the major sectoral indices ended the day in the red. Among the biggest losers of the day were the high beta Realty (-1.72%), Metals (-1.38%) and Banking (-1.23%) indices. The defensive FMCG index outperformed with a minor loss of 0.10%. Broader market indices traded in line with the their frontline peers losing ~0.60%.

Bullish Setups: DRRD, PIHC, AXSB, LT, SAIL
Bearish Setups: HCLT, LPC, RBXY, TTMT, AL

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