12 December 2011

Buy Lupin; Target : Rs 530 ::ICICI Securities

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P r o d u c t   l a u n c h  e s   t o   h o l d   k e y …
Lupin’s Q2FY12 results were in line with our expectations. Revenues
increased by 23.6% YoY to | 1772.4 crore in line with our expectation of |
1774 crore, driven by healthy growth in the domestic formulation
business and licensing income (~| 97 crore) from Medicis Pharma.
Excluding licensing income, base revenues grew ~17% YoY to | 1677
crore in line with our expectation. It launched six products in the US and
11 products in the domestic market during the quarter. EBITDA margins
increased 200 bps to 22.8% YoY on the back of higher licensing income.
Excluding the impact on licensing  income, EBITDA margins declined ~
200 bps on the back of price erosion in Lotrel and spurt in the employee
cost. Higher taxation of 21.6% compared to 10.9% in Q2FY11 restricted
net profit growth to 24.1% at | 266.7 crore in line with our expectation of
| 257 crore. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
ƒ Acquires Japan based I’rom Pharmaceuticals
The company acquired a 100%  stake in Japan based I’rom
Pharmaceuticals (IP), a subsidiary of I’rom Holdings, through its
Japanese subsidiary Kyowa Pharmaceuticals. IP had sales of JPY
5361 million in FY11. IP is a strong player in injectables in the
Japanese market.
ƒ Plans to launch 3-4 OC drugs in US market in H2FY12
Sales from the US market grew 15.2% to ~ | 552 crore on the back
of 19% growth in the branded business and 14% growth in the
generic business. It is planning to launch six to seven products in
the second half, which includes three to four OCs.
V a l u a t i o n
The stock is currently trading at  ~20x FY12E EPS of | 23.6 and ~17x
FY13E EPS of | 27.9. We expect sales, EBITDA and profits to grow at a
CAGR of 20%, 22% and 22% in FY10-13E, respectively. Once again the
well thought geographical mix has done wonders for the company albeit
with some margin pinch. With new launches, including some FTFs, on the
cards, we expect Lupin to maintain the growth momentum. We are
maintaining our target price of | 530 1.e 19x FY13E EPS of | 27.9.

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