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In an interview with ET Now, Deepak Mohoni, Director, trendwatchindia.com, gives his views on the market scenario. Excerpts:
ET Now: How does one trade this market come Monday morning with a breach of 4700 on Friday and a close at 4650, it was quite painful to see what was happening on the ticker?
Deepak Mohoni: Last two hours of trading really changed the picture because the situation was looking very promising at 1:30 p.m. The Nifty only needed to go 30 more points above 4850 and it was to be an intermediate uptrend but that has completely changed. We have straight gone down to a 52-week low. So, given the situation what we have is still 4850 as the target to be or the level to be crossed for an intermediate uptrend. Now that is pretty far away and we have now a fairly well established intermediate downtrend. So, for traders generally speaking till this reverses trades on the short side are going to be more profitable. For investors, we have got new lows happening every now and then now for so many months, but after getting below the previous low, the index does not tend to fall very much more. So, this little zone as we go below a previous low usually 50 to 100 Nifty points later there is a bottom. So, this is a good zone to accumulate stocks for long term investors. So for long term investors, good time to accumulate stocks, not the ones that are making new lows but the ones which are holding out, are reasonably stable, have good fundamentals and for traders, it is short term trades on the short side.
ET Now: Your thoughts on Reliance Communications as well as Essar Oil.
Deepak Mohoni: Reliance Communications had actually been making some good moves say about a week or so ago. It was looking more stable. In fact at that time Idea and Bharti were not doing well but this has changed again. The stock has slipped below its previous bottom like so many other stocks in the indices. So, this is now back into pretty much a downtrend but I would not say the move is necessarily anymore alarming than many other stocks in the market. But that is not what I would say of Essar Oil. This move is alarming. This has really cracked during the week and it was already at a new low at the start of the week and it has got much worse today, scratch worse, a very heavy one. So, Essar Oil looks like where investors are really trying to get out on extremely high volume.
ET Now: What is it that you see on the charts for IVRCL and Pantaloon now and would you be a little brave to go in and buy at these levels?
Deepak Mohoni: No, neither of these 2 stocks because though as I mentioned it is a good time for investment, the caveat was avoid those stocks which are making new lows and Pantaloon unfortunately after all that promise of FDI retail has gone below the prices from where the lows it had reached before this move. Given that the stock is in an outright downtrend, there is no interest in the stock. IVRCL is a little bit stable, it is Rs 30 as a low has been holding out since mid-August but there is on uptrend here yet and the infrastructure stocks have done this quite often. They have based themselves for couple of months, looks a little promising but the breakout comes down and not up. So given that history, I would not yet fish into infrastructure stocks. You want to see them at 3-month highs, 4-month highs before getting into infrastructure at this time.
ET Now: What about sugar, stay away from names like Balrampur as well as Shree Renuka?
Deepak Mohoni: Yes, at the moment nothing really working out well for sugar. Market conditions themselves being so adverse, best not to get into sugar at all and they are in freefall once more. So mix up for a little bit of getting on the short side, sugar does not have much to offer yet.
ET Now: Any trading recommendations for Monday morning, short or long?
Deepak Mohoni: Bit of both, TTK Prestige, this stock was not affected by that huge sell off Friday afternoon, so comes out as a promising stock for next week, particularly if the markets bounce back in the morning. So you have got TTK Prestige as a buy and it may be good for 4-5% over the week. Wipro, though technology also was affected by that fall not so much and technology stocks in general could offer good trades on the long side next week and Wipro is as good as any of them. Short side, you have got 2 or 3 stocks which have really been falling, lot of momentum on the downside. In fact one of them is Pantaloon which we discussed sometime back. 2 other stocks that could be good for short sales whenever the market is weak are Delta Corp and CESC. That has been losing a lot of percentage points for the last month or so.
ET Now: A quick call on VIP as well as Titan.
Deepak Mohoni: VIP is facing quite a huge sell off. In fact of all those 5-6 stocks you mentioned that has been the weakest and has practically been in freefall for the last 2 months. Titan has been slowly slipping and losing its position. It has gone below previous intermediate bottom. The long term trend in the stock has turned down and if you do not look at the rupee gold chart but the dollar gold chart, gold topped out back in September at 1900 and it has got nowhere back there and now it is below the 200-day moving average. So it looks like that bull run in gold is now truly finished. You are starting to get bear market signals in gold. So that would not look very good for Titan either going ahead.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
In an interview with ET Now, Deepak Mohoni, Director, trendwatchindia.com, gives his views on the market scenario. Excerpts:
ET Now: How does one trade this market come Monday morning with a breach of 4700 on Friday and a close at 4650, it was quite painful to see what was happening on the ticker?
Deepak Mohoni: Last two hours of trading really changed the picture because the situation was looking very promising at 1:30 p.m. The Nifty only needed to go 30 more points above 4850 and it was to be an intermediate uptrend but that has completely changed. We have straight gone down to a 52-week low. So, given the situation what we have is still 4850 as the target to be or the level to be crossed for an intermediate uptrend. Now that is pretty far away and we have now a fairly well established intermediate downtrend. So, for traders generally speaking till this reverses trades on the short side are going to be more profitable. For investors, we have got new lows happening every now and then now for so many months, but after getting below the previous low, the index does not tend to fall very much more. So, this little zone as we go below a previous low usually 50 to 100 Nifty points later there is a bottom. So, this is a good zone to accumulate stocks for long term investors. So for long term investors, good time to accumulate stocks, not the ones that are making new lows but the ones which are holding out, are reasonably stable, have good fundamentals and for traders, it is short term trades on the short side.
ET Now: Your thoughts on Reliance Communications as well as Essar Oil.
Deepak Mohoni: Reliance Communications had actually been making some good moves say about a week or so ago. It was looking more stable. In fact at that time Idea and Bharti were not doing well but this has changed again. The stock has slipped below its previous bottom like so many other stocks in the indices. So, this is now back into pretty much a downtrend but I would not say the move is necessarily anymore alarming than many other stocks in the market. But that is not what I would say of Essar Oil. This move is alarming. This has really cracked during the week and it was already at a new low at the start of the week and it has got much worse today, scratch worse, a very heavy one. So, Essar Oil looks like where investors are really trying to get out on extremely high volume.
ET Now: What is it that you see on the charts for IVRCL and Pantaloon now and would you be a little brave to go in and buy at these levels?
Deepak Mohoni: No, neither of these 2 stocks because though as I mentioned it is a good time for investment, the caveat was avoid those stocks which are making new lows and Pantaloon unfortunately after all that promise of FDI retail has gone below the prices from where the lows it had reached before this move. Given that the stock is in an outright downtrend, there is no interest in the stock. IVRCL is a little bit stable, it is Rs 30 as a low has been holding out since mid-August but there is on uptrend here yet and the infrastructure stocks have done this quite often. They have based themselves for couple of months, looks a little promising but the breakout comes down and not up. So given that history, I would not yet fish into infrastructure stocks. You want to see them at 3-month highs, 4-month highs before getting into infrastructure at this time.
ET Now: What about sugar, stay away from names like Balrampur as well as Shree Renuka?
Deepak Mohoni: Yes, at the moment nothing really working out well for sugar. Market conditions themselves being so adverse, best not to get into sugar at all and they are in freefall once more. So mix up for a little bit of getting on the short side, sugar does not have much to offer yet.
ET Now: Any trading recommendations for Monday morning, short or long?
Deepak Mohoni: Bit of both, TTK Prestige, this stock was not affected by that huge sell off Friday afternoon, so comes out as a promising stock for next week, particularly if the markets bounce back in the morning. So you have got TTK Prestige as a buy and it may be good for 4-5% over the week. Wipro, though technology also was affected by that fall not so much and technology stocks in general could offer good trades on the long side next week and Wipro is as good as any of them. Short side, you have got 2 or 3 stocks which have really been falling, lot of momentum on the downside. In fact one of them is Pantaloon which we discussed sometime back. 2 other stocks that could be good for short sales whenever the market is weak are Delta Corp and CESC. That has been losing a lot of percentage points for the last month or so.
ET Now: A quick call on VIP as well as Titan.
Deepak Mohoni: VIP is facing quite a huge sell off. In fact of all those 5-6 stocks you mentioned that has been the weakest and has practically been in freefall for the last 2 months. Titan has been slowly slipping and losing its position. It has gone below previous intermediate bottom. The long term trend in the stock has turned down and if you do not look at the rupee gold chart but the dollar gold chart, gold topped out back in September at 1900 and it has got nowhere back there and now it is below the 200-day moving average. So it looks like that bull run in gold is now truly finished. You are starting to get bear market signals in gold. So that would not look very good for Titan either going ahead.
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