21 December 2011

21 Dec 2011:: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) :Edelweiss,

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty has closed lower for the fifth consecutive session after bring unable to sustain above 4600 in the opening hour. The 1.50% drop in yesterday’s session was extremely volatile as the index swung between 4635 and 4560 for a large part before finally caving in to a new low of 4531. Trading volumes were average and the market breadth continued to remain weak with an A/D ratio of 1:3. The fall from 4800 has been an accelerated one and the Nifty is now trading close to the 13-month falling trend channel base at 4500. Momentum oscillators are trading in oversold territory warning of a technical rebound, however the larger price/momentum structure continues to remain bearish. Overnight global cues point to a strong opening after a sharp 3% rally in US markets along with positive trend among the Asian peers that will trap the late coming bears. Expect the index to open around 4650-4675 from where it will be difficult to add to further gains as the previous support and now resistance of 4720 will keep the lid on the prices. We expect the selling to resume at higher levels that will take Nifty down to test the channel support from where a sustainable pullback is most likely.

The sectoral performance was mostly bearish with selling witnessed in Cap Goods (-0.95%), Realty (-0.83%) and Banking (-0.78%) indices. FMCG (+1%) and Healthcare (+0.38%) gained on defensive buying and outperformed the benchmark index. Broader market indices underperformed for the third consecutive session with the Mid-cap and Small-cap indices losing 0.51% and 0.45% respectively.

Bullish Setups: DRRD, PIHC, DITV, LT
Bearish Setups: HCLT, LPC, RBXY, TTMT, AL


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