25 November 2011

Siemens India - Hold -- Good interims masked by forex losses :Deutsche bank,

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Siemens 4QFY11 results at first glance looked disappointing at INR 1.69 bn
(down 33% YoY and 10%/45% below street/DBe) despite a 20% YoY jump
in net sales at INR 36 bn. However, if adjusted for the INR 1.59 bn forex
losses, the recurring net income at INR 2.73 bn was much better than street
expectations. With Siemens reporting good margins (12.6% at EBITDA lev-
el, down 60 bps YoY) which is in line with the commentary made by Areva
(Hold, 198.55INR) as well as ABB (Sell, 607.15INR) that the competitive
pressures seems to be slowly reclining in the sector, the fate of the stock
would clearly depend on the demand outlook. Despite 10% underperformance
in the past 1 month to the BSE Sensex, the order inflows showing
a 15% YoY fall in Q4FY11 at INR 25.6 bn and a flat order book at INR 139.2
bn (up 2% YoY), we reiterate hold.
Key highlights of the results
* Siemens registered a good 20% jump in topline in 4Q to INR 36 bn driven
largely by the sharp jump in the fossil power generation (up 307% YoY at
INR 5.35 bn) and building technologies businesses (up 84% YoY at INR 3.3
bn). Power transmission segment showed a lacklustre 4% YoY fall in revenues
at INR 10 bn.
* EBITDA margins, adjusted for the forex loss of INR 1.59 bn, came in at
12.6% (down 60 bps YoY). On a segmentwise basis, the EBIT margin declined
across most segments but seemed more pronouned in the power
transmission segment which reported a mere 3.2% EBIT margin (down
1200 bps YoY).
* Given its zero debt balance sheet, the forex losses at INR 1.59 bn seem
to be largely on account of the forward contracts and these are likely to
continue as long as forex movements are adverse.
Based on our revised EPS estimates of INR 33.7/40.4 for FY12E/FY13E and
target price of INR 750, we recommend Hold and prefer Thermax (Buy, INR
451).

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