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PLNG net profit of Rs2.6bn (+99%y/y) was ahead of our and consensus
expectations. LNG volumes were higher-than-expected and were the key
reason for the beat. We are more positive towards the stock post the 8%
correction over the last month and robust near-term outlook on LNG
volumes.
Sustaining high utilizations… PLNG Dahej utilization levels continued
to be high at 106% and management guided that this is likely to sustain
over the next quarter based on tied-up spot volumes. Recent dip in spot
LNG prices, coupled with coal shortages and high merchant power
prices also makes us more sanguine on LNG offtake over the near-term.
..and robust marketing margins: Marketing margins were in-line with
1Q levels and management guidance. Average EBITDA/mmbtu of
Rs33.2 was marginally higher than last quarter levels. Reported other
expenditure contained an element of foreign exchange loss of Rs530m
pertaining to raw materials.
Projects running on schedule. Kochi terminal is expected to be
commercialized in 4QCY12, with some volumes starting to come into
the terminal in 3Q; the second jetty at Dahej will be completed by Oct-
Nov 2013. Capex on Kochi is expected to be contained at Rs42bn and
for the Jetty at Rs9bn.
Maintain PT of Rs190. We marginally adjust FY12 earnings by 3% on
lower-than-anticipated finance charges. We however continue to hold
our full year volume expectation at 10.5mMT (105% utilization) - the
coming quarters should see larger LT volumes, which would lower spot
berths - unless utilization levels are upped further. Our PT now provides
16% potential upside to the stock – we would be buyers of the stock at
Rs150-155 levels.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
PLNG net profit of Rs2.6bn (+99%y/y) was ahead of our and consensus
expectations. LNG volumes were higher-than-expected and were the key
reason for the beat. We are more positive towards the stock post the 8%
correction over the last month and robust near-term outlook on LNG
volumes.
Sustaining high utilizations… PLNG Dahej utilization levels continued
to be high at 106% and management guided that this is likely to sustain
over the next quarter based on tied-up spot volumes. Recent dip in spot
LNG prices, coupled with coal shortages and high merchant power
prices also makes us more sanguine on LNG offtake over the near-term.
..and robust marketing margins: Marketing margins were in-line with
1Q levels and management guidance. Average EBITDA/mmbtu of
Rs33.2 was marginally higher than last quarter levels. Reported other
expenditure contained an element of foreign exchange loss of Rs530m
pertaining to raw materials.
Projects running on schedule. Kochi terminal is expected to be
commercialized in 4QCY12, with some volumes starting to come into
the terminal in 3Q; the second jetty at Dahej will be completed by Oct-
Nov 2013. Capex on Kochi is expected to be contained at Rs42bn and
for the Jetty at Rs9bn.
Maintain PT of Rs190. We marginally adjust FY12 earnings by 3% on
lower-than-anticipated finance charges. We however continue to hold
our full year volume expectation at 10.5mMT (105% utilization) - the
coming quarters should see larger LT volumes, which would lower spot
berths - unless utilization levels are upped further. Our PT now provides
16% potential upside to the stock – we would be buyers of the stock at
Rs150-155 levels.
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